Spain · La Liga

Celta Vigo vs Osasuna

Kick-off 19:30 · Thu, Aug 27

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

53% confidence

Celta Vigo 52.8% Draw 24.7% Osasuna 22.5%

Over 2.5 - 48% BTTS - 74%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

78%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

74%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 8.7%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Celta Vigo: 11 points versus 1 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Celta Vigo 3 wins, 0 draws, Osasuna 2 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.7%

Exact-score model probability

Celta Vigo

D W D L W W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 8:5 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 0.83

Osasuna

D L L L L L

Form 0-1-5 Goals 5:10 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.67

Head to head · last 5

Celta Vigo 3wins ·0 draws ·Osasuna 2wins

Celta Vigo 1-2 OsasunaFeb 6, 2026

Celta Vigo 3-2 OsasunaOct 26, 2025

Celta Vigo 1-0 OsasunaFeb 21, 2025

Celta Vigo 2-3 OsasunaSep 1, 2024

Celta Vigo 3-0 OsasunaFeb 4, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Celta Vigo win52.8%

Draw24.7%

Osasuna win22.5%

Over 1.5 goals73.1%

Over 2.5 goals48.0%

Over 3.5 goals26.2%

Both teams to score74.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Team to Score

89.9%

Home Over 0.5

89.9%

Over 1.5 Goals

89.6%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)80.1%

Home or Draw (1X)74.4%

Both Halves Over 0.572.3%

Goal in Both Halves72.3%

Draw No Bet - Home68.1%

Home Win54.5%

Draw or Away (X2)45.4%

Draw No Bet - Away31.9%

Away Win25.6%

Draw19.8%

Exactly 1 Goal8.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.8%

Over 1.5 Goals89.6%

Under 5.5 Goals81.0%

Over 2.5 Goals73.8%

Under 4.5 Goals66.0%

2-4 Goals55.5%

Over 3.5 Goals53.5%

4+ Goals53.5%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals46.5%

1-3 Goals44.3%

3-4 Goals39.7%

2-3 Goals36.1%

Over 4.5 Goals34.0%

Under 2.5 Goals26.2%

1-2 Goals24.0%

Exactly 3 Goals20.3%

Over 5.5 Goals19.0%

Exactly 2 Goals15.8%

Under 1.5 Goals10.4%

Under 0.5 Goals2.2%

Exactly 0 Goals2.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score89.9%

Away Team to Score78.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)70.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)29.3%

Home Clean Sheet21.3%

Home Win to Nil19.2%

Away Clean Sheet10.0%

Away Win to Nil7.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.589.9%

Away Over 0.578.6%

Home Over 1.566.8%

Away Over 1.545.7%

Home Over 2.540.3%

Home 3+ Goals40.3%

Away Exactly 132.9%

Home Exactly 226.5%

Away Exactly 225.5%

Home Exactly 123.1%

Away Exactly 021.3%

Away Over 2.520.3%

Away 3+ Goals20.3%

Home Exactly 010.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)92.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away92.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)88.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home88.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)82.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away82.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)74.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home74.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)66.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away66.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)54.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)45.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away45.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)33.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home33.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)25.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw20.7%

Home to win by 120.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)17.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home17.7%

Home to win by 3+17.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.1%

Home to win by 216.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw13.9%

Away to win by 113.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)11.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away11.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw9.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)7.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home7.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.3%

Away to win by 27.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.4%

Away to win by 3+4.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)3.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home3.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.563.1%

Home & Over 2.544.0%

Home & BTTS35.4%

Away & Over 2.519.7%

Home & No BTTS19.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.518.6%

Away & BTTS17.7%

Draw & BTTS17.7%

Home & Under 2.510.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.6%

Draw & Over 2.510.1%

Draw & Under 2.59.7%

Away & No BTTS7.9%

BTTS & Under 2.57.6%

Away & Under 2.55.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.582.3%

HT Over 1.551.6%

HT Under 1.548.4%

2nd Half More Goals47.1%

HT Home Win42.9%

HT/FT Home/Home35.4%

HT Draw33.0%

HT Both Teams Score32.3%

1st Half More Goals32.1%

HT Away Win24.2%

Equal Goals Each Half20.8%

HT Under 0.517.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.2%

HT/FT Away/Away15.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Away/Home4.1%

HT/FT Home/Away2.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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