Scotland · Premiership

Celtic vs Aberdeen

Kick-off 19:45 · Wed, Sep 2

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

80% confidence

Celtic 79.9% Draw 13.4% Aberdeen 6.5%

Over 2.5 - 65% BTTS - 54%

🎯 Best Pick

Home Win

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

1X · Home or Draw covers 93.3% of the model's 1X2 probability, leaving 6.7% on the only losing outcome.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Celtic: 15 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

1X · Home or Draw

93.3%

Two outcomes covered by the model

Loss probability

6.7%

Only the uncovered result loses

Celtic

L W W W W W

Form 5-0-1 Goals 16:8 Scored/game 2.67 Conceded/game 1.33

Aberdeen

L L W L L W

Form 2-0-4 Goals 6:9 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 5

Celtic 5wins ·0 draws ·Aberdeen 0wins

Celtic 2-1 AberdeenMar 4, 2026

Celtic 3-1 AberdeenDec 21, 2025

Celtic 2-0 AberdeenAug 10, 2025

Celtic 5-1 AberdeenMay 14, 2025

Celtic 5-1 AberdeenFeb 25, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

Celtic win79.9%

Draw13.4%

Aberdeen win6.5%

Over 1.5 goals84.8%

Over 2.5 goals64.9%

Over 3.5 goals42.9%

Both teams to score54.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Away (12)

91.7%

Home Win

88.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)

88.7%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home96.7%

Home or Draw (1X)94.9%

Home or Away (12)91.7%

Home Win88.7%

Both Halves Over 0.581.5%

Goal in Both Halves81.5%

Draw or Away (X2)9.3%

Draw6.3%

Exactly 1 Goal4.2%

Draw No Bet - Away3.3%

Away Win3.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.0%

Over 1.5 Goals92.8%

Over 2.5 Goals82.9%

Under 5.5 Goals68.6%

Over 3.5 Goals67.3%

4+ Goals67.3%

Under 4.5 Goals51.2%

Total Goals Even49.1%

Total Goals Odd48.9%

Over 4.5 Goals48.8%

2-4 Goals44.0%

3-4 Goals34.1%

Under 3.5 Goals32.7%

Over 5.5 Goals31.4%

1-3 Goals29.8%

2-3 Goals25.6%

Under 2.5 Goals17.1%

Exactly 3 Goals15.6%

1-2 Goals14.2%

Exactly 2 Goals9.9%

Under 1.5 Goals7.2%

Under 0.5 Goals3.0%

Exactly 0 Goals0.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.1%

Away Team to Score51.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)50.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)49.6%

Home Clean Sheet46.6%

Home Win to Nil45.7%

Away Clean Sheet1.9%

Away Win to Nil1.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.1%

Home Over 1.588.6%

Home Over 2.573.8%

Home 3+ Goals73.8%

Away Over 0.551.3%

Away Exactly 046.6%

Away Exactly 134.6%

Away Over 1.516.7%

Home Exactly 214.8%

Away Exactly 212.9%

Home Exactly 17.5%

Away Over 2.53.9%

Away 3+ Goals3.9%

Home Exactly 01.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)97.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home97.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)94.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home94.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)88.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)85.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)76.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home76.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)73.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away73.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)59.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home59.4%

Home to win by 3+59.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)57.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away57.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)40.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home40.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)38.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away38.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)24.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home24.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)21.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away21.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw18.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.1%

Home to win by 217.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw16.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)12.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home12.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw12.1%

Home to win by 112.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw11.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)9.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away9.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)3.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw2.3%

Away to win by 12.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.6%

Away to win by 20.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.1%

Away to win by 3+0.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.578.1%

BTTS & Over 2.547.7%

Home & No BTTS45.7%

Home & BTTS43.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.535.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.512.4%

Home & Under 2.510.6%

Draw & BTTS5.4%

Draw & Under 2.53.5%

Draw & Over 2.52.7%

BTTS & Under 2.52.6%

Away & Over 2.52.1%

Away & BTTS2.0%

Away & No BTTS1.0%

Away & Under 2.50.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.588.0%

HT Home Win73.5%

HT/FT Home/Home71.6%

HT Over 1.562.6%

2nd Half More Goals49.1%

HT Under 1.537.4%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Both Teams Score23.7%

HT Draw20.3%

Equal Goals Each Half18.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.9%

HT Under 0.512.0%

HT Away Win6.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.2%

HT/FT Away/Home3.1%

HT/FT Away/Away1.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.1%

HT/FT Home/Away0.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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