Scotland · Premiership

Celtic vs Falkirk

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Aug 29

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

80% confidence

Celtic 80.2% Draw 12.7% Falkirk 6.8%

Over 2.5 - 71% BTTS - 56%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

88%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

80%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-0 at 10.9%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Celtic: 15 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.34 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.9%

Exact-score model probability

Celtic

L W W W W W

Form 5-0-1 Goals 16:8 Scored/game 2.67 Conceded/game 1.33

Falkirk

D L L L L W

Form 1-1-4 Goals 4:13 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 2.17

Head to head · last 4

Celtic 4wins ·0 draws ·Falkirk 0wins

Celtic 3-1 FalkirkApr 25, 2026

Celtic 2-0 FalkirkFeb 1, 2026

Celtic 1-0 FalkirkJan 14, 2026

Celtic 4-0 FalkirkOct 29, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

Celtic win80.2%

Draw12.7%

Falkirk win6.8%

Over 1.5 goals88.1%

Over 2.5 goals70.9%

Over 3.5 goals50.0%

Both teams to score55.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

91.9%

Home Win

89.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)

89.5%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home97.1%

Home or Draw (1X)95.7%

Home or Away (12)92.1%

Home Win89.5%

Both Halves Over 0.578.8%

Goal in Both Halves78.8%

Draw or Away (X2)8.9%

Draw6.3%

Exactly 1 Goal5.3%

Draw No Bet - Away2.9%

Away Win2.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.2%

Over 1.5 Goals91.9%

Over 2.5 Goals80.2%

Under 5.5 Goals73.2%

Over 3.5 Goals62.9%

4+ Goals62.9%

Under 4.5 Goals56.2%

Total Goals Even49.3%

Total Goals Odd49.1%

2-4 Goals48.1%

Over 4.5 Goals43.8%

Under 3.5 Goals37.1%

3-4 Goals36.4%

1-3 Goals34.3%

2-3 Goals29.0%

Over 5.5 Goals26.8%

Under 2.5 Goals19.8%

Exactly 3 Goals17.3%

1-2 Goals17.0%

Exactly 2 Goals11.7%

Under 1.5 Goals8.1%

Under 0.5 Goals2.8%

Exactly 0 Goals1.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)55.3%

Home Clean Sheet52.6%

Home Win to Nil51.4%

Away Team to Score45.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)44.7%

Away Clean Sheet2.2%

Away Win to Nil1.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.2%

Home Over 1.587.7%

Home Over 2.571.5%

Home 3+ Goals71.5%

Away Exactly 052.6%

Away Over 0.545.8%

Away Exactly 132.9%

Home Exactly 216.2%

Away Over 1.512.8%

Away Exactly 210.3%

Home Exactly 18.5%

Away Over 2.52.5%

Away 3+ Goals2.5%

Home Exactly 02.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.4%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)97.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home97.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home95.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)89.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)86.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)76.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home76.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)75.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away75.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)59.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home59.0%

Home to win by 3+59.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)58.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away58.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)39.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home39.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)39.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away39.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)23.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home23.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)21.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away21.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw19.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.9%

Home to win by 217.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw16.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw12.6%

Home to win by 112.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)11.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home11.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw11.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)8.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away8.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw2.1%

Away to win by 12.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.5%

Away to win by 20.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.1%

Away to win by 3+0.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.576.3%

Home & No BTTS51.4%

BTTS & Over 2.541.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.538.3%

Home & BTTS38.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.515.4%

Home & Under 2.513.2%

Draw & BTTS5.1%

Draw & Under 2.54.0%

BTTS & Under 2.52.8%

Draw & Over 2.52.2%

Away & Over 2.51.7%

Away & BTTS1.6%

Away & Under 2.51.0%

Away & No BTTS1.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.586.3%

HT Home Win73.4%

HT/FT Home/Home71.7%

HT Over 1.559.2%

2nd Half More Goals48.5%

HT Under 1.540.8%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw21.1%

HT Both Teams Score20.1%

Equal Goals Each Half19.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.6%

HT Under 0.513.7%

HT Away Win5.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.4%

HT/FT Away/Home2.8%

HT/FT Away/Away1.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.0%

HT/FT Home/Away0.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions