Scotland · Premiership

Celtic vs Kilmarnock

Kick-off 17:00 · Sun, Nov 8

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

84% confidence

Celtic 84.1% Draw 9.9% Kilmarnock 5.4%

Over 2.5 - 76% BTTS - 74%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

91%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

84%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-1 at 7.1%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Celtic: 12 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.1%

Exact-score model probability

Celtic

L W W L W W

Form 4-0-2 Goals 13:6 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1

Kilmarnock

L L L W W W

Form 3-0-3 Goals 14:12 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 2

Head to head · last 5

Celtic 5wins ·0 draws ·Kilmarnock 0wins

Celtic 5-1 KilmarnockAug 9, 2026

Celtic 3-2 KilmarnockFeb 15, 2026

Celtic 4-0 KilmarnockNov 9, 2025

Celtic 2-1 KilmarnockSep 14, 2025

Celtic 5-1 KilmarnockApr 12, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

Celtic win84.1%

Draw9.9%

Kilmarnock win5.4%

Over 1.5 goals90.5%

Over 2.5 goals76.3%

Over 3.5 goals57.0%

Both teams to score73.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

91.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

91.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

91.8%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home93.8%

Home or Draw (1X)91.8%

Home or Away (12)89.5%

Both Halves Over 0.586.0%

Goal in Both Halves86.0%

Home Win83.9%

Draw or Away (X2)13.5%

Draw7.9%

Draw No Bet - Away6.2%

Away Win5.6%

Exactly 1 Goal2.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.9%

Over 1.5 Goals94.3%

Over 2.5 Goals87.4%

Over 3.5 Goals75.2%

4+ Goals75.2%

Over 4.5 Goals58.9%

Under 5.5 Goals58.5%

Total Goals Even48.7%

Total Goals Odd48.6%

Over 5.5 Goals41.5%

Under 4.5 Goals41.1%

2-4 Goals35.4%

3-4 Goals28.6%

Under 3.5 Goals24.8%

1-3 Goals21.7%

2-3 Goals19.1%

Under 2.5 Goals12.6%

Exactly 3 Goals12.2%

1-2 Goals9.5%

Exactly 2 Goals6.9%

Under 1.5 Goals5.7%

Under 0.5 Goals3.1%

Exactly 0 Goals0.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.8%

Away Team to Score67.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)66.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)33.8%

Home Clean Sheet30.0%

Home Win to Nil29.6%

Away Clean Sheet1.6%

Away Win to Nil1.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.8%

Home Over 1.589.3%

Home Over 2.575.7%

Home 3+ Goals75.7%

Away Over 0.567.3%

Away Exactly 135.3%

Away Over 1.532.0%

Away Exactly 030.0%

Away Exactly 220.8%

Home Exactly 213.6%

Away Over 2.511.2%

Away 3+ Goals11.2%

Home Exactly 16.5%

Home Exactly 01.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.4%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)91.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home91.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)86.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)83.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)75.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away75.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)70.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home70.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)60.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away60.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)54.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home54.0%

Home to win by 3+54.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)43.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away43.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)36.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home36.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)26.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away26.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)21.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home21.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.8%

Home to win by 216.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw14.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)13.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away13.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw13.0%

Home to win by 113.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)10.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home10.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw10.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)5.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw3.7%

Away to win by 13.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.4%

Away to win by 21.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.5%

Away to win by 3+0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.577.7%

BTTS & Over 2.563.9%

Home & BTTS54.3%

Home & No BTTS29.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.523.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.57.6%

Draw & BTTS7.4%

Home & Under 2.56.2%

Draw & Over 2.55.1%

Away & Over 2.54.7%

Away & BTTS4.5%

Draw & Under 2.52.9%

BTTS & Under 2.52.4%

Away & No BTTS1.1%

Away & Under 2.50.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.590.9%

HT Home Win69.7%

HT Over 1.569.1%

HT/FT Home/Home66.7%

2nd Half More Goals50.2%

HT Both Teams Score34.7%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.530.9%

HT Draw20.6%

Equal Goals Each Half17.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.3%

HT Away Win9.7%

HT Under 0.59.1%

HT/FT Away/Home4.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.4%

HT/FT Away/Away3.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.8%

HT/FT Home/Away0.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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