Italy · Serie B

Cesena vs Sampdoria

Kick-off 20:00 · Sun, Aug 23

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

93% confidence

Cesena 93.2% Draw 5.0% Sampdoria 1.8%

Over 2.5 - 89% BTTS - 51%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

93%

Draw No Bet - Home

DNB home — draw refunds stake

93%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-0 at 9.2%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.2%

Exact-score model probability

Cesena

L D

Form 0-1-1 Goals 3:4 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 2

Sampdoria

L W L D L D

Form 1-2-3 Goals 5:11 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.83

📈 Probability Breakdown

Cesena win93.2%

Draw5.0%

Sampdoria win1.8%

Over 1.5 goals96.7%

Over 2.5 goals88.8%

Over 3.5 goals75.5%

Both teams to score51.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Away (12)

91.6%

HT Over 0.5

90.4%

Home Over 1.5

89.9%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home97.9%

Home or Draw (1X)94.1%

Home or Away (12)91.6%

Home Win89.7%

Both Halves Over 0.585.3%

Goal in Both Halves85.3%

Draw or Away (X2)6.3%

Draw4.3%

Exactly 1 Goal2.8%

Draw No Bet - Away2.1%

Away Win1.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.4%

Over 1.5 Goals92.6%

Over 2.5 Goals85.2%

Over 3.5 Goals72.4%

4+ Goals72.4%

Under 5.5 Goals61.8%

Over 4.5 Goals55.7%

Total Goals Even48.2%

Total Goals Odd47.8%

Under 4.5 Goals44.3%

Over 5.5 Goals38.2%

2-4 Goals36.9%

3-4 Goals29.5%

Under 3.5 Goals27.6%

1-3 Goals23.0%

2-3 Goals20.2%

Under 2.5 Goals14.8%

Exactly 3 Goals12.8%

1-2 Goals10.2%

Under 1.5 Goals7.4%

Exactly 2 Goals7.4%

Under 0.5 Goals4.6%

Exactly 0 Goals0.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)51.3%

Away Team to Score49.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)48.7%

Home Clean Sheet46.7%

Home Win to Nil46.2%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil0.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.9%

Home Over 1.589.9%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 0.549.3%

Away Exactly 046.7%

Away Exactly 133.6%

Away Over 1.515.6%

Away Exactly 212.1%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Away Over 2.53.5%

Away 3+ Goals3.5%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)94.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home94.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)89.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)80.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home80.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)78.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)66.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home66.2%

Home to win by 3+66.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)64.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away64.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)48.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home48.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)47.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away47.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)31.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home31.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)29.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away29.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)17.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home17.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw17.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)15.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away15.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.4%

Home to win by 214.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw14.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw9.2%

Home to win by 19.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)6.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away6.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw1.5%

Away to win by 11.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.4%

Away to win by 20.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.1%

Away to win by 3+0.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.581.8%

BTTS & Over 2.546.9%

Home & No BTTS46.2%

Home & BTTS43.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.538.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.59.0%

Home & Under 2.57.9%

Draw & BTTS3.8%

Draw & Under 2.52.3%

Draw & Over 2.52.0%

BTTS & Under 2.51.8%

Away & Over 2.51.4%

Away & BTTS1.4%

Away & No BTTS0.6%

Away & Under 2.50.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.590.4%

HT Home Win78.1%

HT/FT Home/Home76.8%

HT Over 1.568.0%

2nd Half More Goals50.0%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.532.0%

HT Both Teams Score24.0%

Equal Goals Each Half17.5%

HT Draw16.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.0%

HT Under 0.59.6%

HT Away Win4.9%

HT/FT Away/Home2.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw2.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.1%

HT/FT Away/Away1.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away0.7%

HT/FT Home/Away0.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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