Mexico · Liga MX

CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul

Kick-off 04:10 · Thu, Oct 22

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

48% confidence

CF Pachuca 34.8% Draw 17.2% Cruz Azul 48.0%

Over 2.5 - 94% BTTS - 90%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

90%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

83%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-3 at 5.4%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Cruz Azul: 8 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.4%

Exact-score model probability

CF Pachuca

L L D W W D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 9:6 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1

Cruz Azul

W D L W W W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 16:8 Scored/game 2.67 Conceded/game 1.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

CF Pachuca win34.8%

Draw17.2%

Cruz Azul win48.0%

Over 1.5 goals98.5%

Over 2.5 goals93.6%

Over 3.5 goals84.4%

Both teams to score90.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

89.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home

89.7%

Both Halves Over 0.5

89.6%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.589.6%

Goal in Both Halves89.6%

Home or Away (12)82.7%

Draw or Away (X2)64.4%

Draw No Bet - Away58.0%

Home or Draw (1X)51.3%

Away Win47.9%

Draw No Bet - Home42.0%

Home Win34.8%

Draw16.5%

Exactly 1 Goal1.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals99.0%

Over 1.5 Goals97.4%

Over 2.5 Goals92.8%

Over 3.5 Goals83.7%

4+ Goals83.7%

Over 4.5 Goals70.2%

Over 5.5 Goals54.0%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

Total Goals Even49.6%

Under 5.5 Goals46.0%

Under 4.5 Goals29.8%

2-4 Goals27.2%

3-4 Goals22.7%

Under 3.5 Goals16.3%

1-3 Goals15.2%

2-3 Goals13.7%

Exactly 3 Goals9.1%

Under 2.5 Goals7.2%

1-2 Goals6.1%

Exactly 2 Goals4.6%

Under 1.5 Goals2.6%

Under 0.5 Goals1.0%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score95.1%

Home Team to Score93.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)89.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)10.9%

Away Clean Sheet6.2%

Away Win to Nil6.0%

Home Clean Sheet4.1%

Home Win to Nil3.8%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.595.1%

Home Over 0.593.0%

Away Over 1.582.0%

Home Over 1.575.7%

Away Over 2.561.1%

Away 3+ Goals61.1%

Home Over 2.551.8%

Home 3+ Goals51.8%

Home Exactly 223.9%

Away Exactly 220.9%

Home Exactly 117.3%

Away Exactly 113.1%

Home Exactly 06.2%

Away Exactly 04.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.6%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.3%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)94.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away94.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)89.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home89.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)88.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away88.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)80.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home80.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)78.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away78.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)67.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home67.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)64.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away64.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)51.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home51.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)47.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)34.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)31.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away31.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)20.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home20.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)18.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away18.6%

Away to win by 3+18.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.1%

Away to win by 116.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.0%

Home to win by 114.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw13.2%

Away to win by 213.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)10.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home10.9%

Home to win by 3+10.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw9.9%

Home to win by 29.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)9.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away9.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw9.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw5.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw5.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)4.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home4.9%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)4.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away4.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw2.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.9%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.6%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.586.8%

Away & Over 2.545.8%

Away & BTTS42.0%

Home & Over 2.533.1%

Home & BTTS30.9%

Draw & BTTS16.2%

Draw & Over 2.514.0%

Away & No BTTS6.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.56.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.54.1%

Home & No BTTS3.8%

Draw & Under 2.52.5%

BTTS & Under 2.52.3%

Away & Under 2.52.1%

Home & Under 2.51.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.593.2%

HT Over 1.574.8%

HT Both Teams Score54.3%

2nd Half More Goals51.3%

HT Away Win41.5%

HT Home Win32.7%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT/FT Away/Away31.9%

HT Draw25.8%

HT Under 1.525.2%

HT/FT Home/Home22.0%

Equal Goals Each Half16.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away11.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home8.7%

HT Under 0.56.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.9%

HT/FT Home/Away5.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Away/Home4.3%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners87.6%

Under 10.5 Corners79.9%

Under 9.5 Corners69.6%

Away Most Corners63.6%

Under 8.5 Corners56.9%

Away Over 4.5 Corners53.0%

Over 8.5 Corners43.1%

Over 9.5 Corners30.4%

Home Over 4.5 Corners24.4%

Home Most Corners24.0%

Over 10.5 Corners20.1%

Over 11.5 Corners12.4%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards88.9%

Over 3.5 Cards75.8%

Over 4.5 Cards58.8%

Under 5.5 Cards58.7%

Over 5.5 Cards41.3%

Under 4.5 Cards41.2%

Under 3.5 Cards24.2%

Over 0.5 Red Cards20.7%

Under 2.5 Cards11.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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