Mexico · Liga MX

CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas

Kick-off 00:00 · Sun, Aug 30

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

55% confidence

CF Pachuca 54.7% Draw 22.7% Guadalajara Chivas 22.6%

Over 2.5 - 69% BTTS - 67%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

88%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

77%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

67%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 9.3%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Guadalajara Chivas: 4 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.3%

Exact-score model probability

CF Pachuca

D L L L W L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 7:8 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.33

Guadalajara Chivas

W W D W L L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 6:5 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 0.83

📈 Probability Breakdown

CF Pachuca win54.7%

Draw22.7%

Guadalajara Chivas win22.6%

Over 1.5 goals88.0%

Over 2.5 goals68.8%

Over 3.5 goals47.4%

Both teams to score67.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

89.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

89.8%

Home Team to Score

88.6%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)79.5%

Home or Draw (1X)76.2%

Draw No Bet - Home70.2%

Both Halves Over 0.568.4%

Goal in Both Halves68.4%

Home Win55.8%

Draw or Away (X2)44.2%

Draw No Bet - Away29.8%

Away Win23.7%

Draw20.5%

Exactly 1 Goal10.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.1%

Over 1.5 Goals86.9%

Under 5.5 Goals85.2%

Under 4.5 Goals71.7%

Over 2.5 Goals68.8%

2-4 Goals58.5%

Under 3.5 Goals52.7%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

1-3 Goals49.7%

Over 3.5 Goals47.3%

4+ Goals47.3%

3-4 Goals40.4%

2-3 Goals39.5%

Under 2.5 Goals31.2%

Over 4.5 Goals28.3%

1-2 Goals28.3%

Exactly 3 Goals21.4%

Exactly 2 Goals18.1%

Over 5.5 Goals14.8%

Under 1.5 Goals13.1%

Under 0.5 Goals2.9%

Exactly 0 Goals2.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score88.6%

Away Team to Score74.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)66.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)33.9%

Home Clean Sheet25.3%

Home Win to Nil22.5%

Away Clean Sheet11.3%

Away Win to Nil8.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.588.6%

Away Over 0.574.6%

Home Over 1.563.9%

Away Over 1.539.8%

Home Over 2.537.1%

Home 3+ Goals37.1%

Away Exactly 134.8%

Home Exactly 226.9%

Away Exactly 025.3%

Home Exactly 124.7%

Away Exactly 223.9%

Away Over 2.516.0%

Away 3+ Goals16.0%

Home Exactly 011.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.1%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)92.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away92.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)89.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home89.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)82.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away82.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)76.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home76.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)65.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away65.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)55.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)44.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away44.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)34.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home34.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)23.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.6%

Home to win by 121.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)17.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home17.5%

Home to win by 3+17.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.7%

Home to win by 216.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw13.6%

Away to win by 113.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)10.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away10.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw9.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)7.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home7.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.6%

Away to win by 26.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.5%

Away to win by 3+3.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.557.6%

Home & Over 2.542.7%

Home & BTTS33.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.522.6%

Home & No BTTS22.5%

Draw & BTTS17.6%

Away & Over 2.517.1%

Away & BTTS15.3%

Home & Under 2.513.1%

Draw & Under 2.511.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.2%

Draw & Over 2.59.0%

BTTS & Under 2.58.6%

Away & No BTTS8.5%

Away & Under 2.56.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.579.8%

HT Under 1.552.6%

HT Over 1.547.4%

2nd Half More Goals46.3%

HT Home Win43.1%

HT/FT Home/Home36.0%

HT Draw34.5%

1st Half More Goals31.9%

HT Both Teams Score28.8%

HT Away Win22.5%

Equal Goals Each Half21.8%

HT Under 0.520.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.0%

HT/FT Away/Away13.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Away/Home3.8%

HT/FT Home/Away2.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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