Mexico · Liga MX

CF Pachuca vs Necaxa

Kick-off 00:10 · Mon, Oct 12

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

61% confidence

CF Pachuca 60.6% Draw 18.2% Necaxa 21.2%

Over 2.5 - 84% BTTS - 78%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

82%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

78%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

1X · Home or Draw covers 78.8% of the model's 1X2 probability, leaving 21.2% on the only losing outcome.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to CF Pachuca: 9 points versus 3 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

1X · Home or Draw

78.8%

Two outcomes covered by the model

Loss probability

21.2%

Only the uncovered result loses

CF Pachuca

L D W W D D

Form 2-3-1 Goals 9:5 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 0.83

Necaxa

D L D L D L

Form 0-3-3 Goals 6:10 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

CF Pachuca win60.6%

Draw18.2%

Necaxa win21.2%

Over 1.5 goals95.1%

Over 2.5 goals83.8%

Over 3.5 goals67.5%

Both teams to score78.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 11.5 Corners

90.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

89.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

89.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)82.8%

Both Halves Over 0.580.5%

Goal in Both Halves80.5%

Home or Draw (1X)77.9%

Draw No Bet - Home73.7%

Home Win61.0%

Draw or Away (X2)38.7%

Draw No Bet - Away26.3%

Away Win21.8%

Draw16.9%

Exactly 1 Goal4.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.7%

Over 1.5 Goals94.1%

Over 2.5 Goals83.6%

Under 5.5 Goals68.6%

Over 3.5 Goals67.3%

4+ Goals67.3%

Under 4.5 Goals51.4%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Over 4.5 Goals48.6%

2-4 Goals45.5%

3-4 Goals35.0%

Under 3.5 Goals32.7%

Over 5.5 Goals31.4%

1-3 Goals31.4%

2-3 Goals26.8%

Under 2.5 Goals16.4%

Exactly 3 Goals16.2%

1-2 Goals15.1%

Exactly 2 Goals10.6%

Under 1.5 Goals5.9%

Under 0.5 Goals1.3%

Exactly 0 Goals1.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.1%

Away Team to Score82.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)77.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)22.5%

Home Clean Sheet17.5%

Home Win to Nil16.5%

Away Clean Sheet5.6%

Away Win to Nil4.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.1%

Away Over 0.582.2%

Home Over 1.577.8%

Home Over 2.554.5%

Home 3+ Goals54.5%

Away Over 1.551.7%

Away Exactly 130.5%

Away Exactly 226.5%

Away Over 2.525.2%

Away 3+ Goals25.2%

Home Exactly 223.3%

Away Exactly 017.5%

Home Exactly 116.2%

Home Exactly 05.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)94.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away94.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)89.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home89.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)86.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away86.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)77.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home77.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)74.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away74.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)61.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)57.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away57.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)41.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home41.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)38.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away38.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)25.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home25.0%

Home to win by 3+25.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)21.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.1%

Home to win by 119.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.0%

Home to win by 217.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)12.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home12.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw12.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw11.6%

Away to win by 111.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)10.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away10.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw7.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.2%

Away to win by 26.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)5.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home5.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.0%

Away to win by 3+4.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.572.6%

Home & Over 2.554.1%

Home & BTTS44.5%

Away & Over 2.518.5%

Away & BTTS17.1%

Home & No BTTS16.5%

Draw & BTTS15.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.511.2%

Draw & Over 2.511.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.0%

Home & Under 2.57.0%

Draw & Under 2.55.9%

BTTS & Under 2.55.0%

Away & No BTTS4.6%

Away & Under 2.53.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.587.5%

HT Over 1.561.4%

2nd Half More Goals48.9%

HT Home Win48.6%

HT/FT Home/Home41.4%

HT Both Teams Score39.4%

HT Under 1.538.6%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw28.8%

HT Away Win22.6%

Equal Goals Each Half18.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.0%

HT/FT Away/Away12.8%

HT Under 0.512.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.6%

HT/FT Away/Home4.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Home/Away2.4%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners90.5%

Under 10.5 Corners84.0%

Under 9.5 Corners74.7%

Under 8.5 Corners62.7%

Away Most Corners53.4%

Away Over 4.5 Corners42.0%

Over 8.5 Corners37.3%

Home Most Corners32.5%

Home Over 4.5 Corners27.5%

Over 9.5 Corners25.3%

Over 10.5 Corners16.0%

Over 11.5 Corners9.5%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards93.6%

Over 3.5 Cards84.5%

Over 4.5 Cards70.9%

Over 5.5 Cards54.8%

Under 5.5 Cards45.2%

Under 4.5 Cards29.1%

Over 0.5 Red Cards23.8%

Under 3.5 Cards15.5%

Under 2.5 Cards6.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions