Mexico · Liga MX

CF Pachuca vs Puebla

● LIVE 45' · 1:2

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

56% confidence

CF Pachuca 55.5% Draw 29.8% Puebla 14.7%

Over 2.5 - 34% BTTS - 37%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 2.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

84%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 18.2%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to CF Pachuca: 9 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

18.2%

Exact-score model probability

CF Pachuca

L L W L W W

Form 3-0-3 Goals 7:4 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 0.67

Puebla

D L W

Form 1-1-1 Goals 3:3 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

CF Pachuca win55.5%

Draw29.8%

Puebla win14.7%

Over 1.5 goals62.9%

Over 2.5 goals34.4%

Over 3.5 goals15.7%

Both teams to score37.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

88.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

88.4%

Over 0.5 Goals

87.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)83.8%

Draw No Bet - Home77.9%

Home or Away (12)73.1%

Home Win57.0%

Draw or Away (X2)43.0%

Both Halves Over 0.541.3%

Goal in Both Halves41.3%

Draw26.8%

Exactly 1 Goal26.1%

Draw No Bet - Away22.1%

Away Win16.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals98.1%

Under 4.5 Goals94.0%

Over 0.5 Goals87.4%

Under 3.5 Goals84.3%

1-3 Goals71.8%

Under 2.5 Goals65.6%

Over 1.5 Goals61.4%

2-4 Goals55.4%

1-2 Goals53.1%

Total Goals Even50.8%

Total Goals Odd49.2%

2-3 Goals45.7%

Under 1.5 Goals38.6%

Over 2.5 Goals34.4%

3-4 Goals28.4%

Exactly 2 Goals27.0%

Exactly 3 Goals18.7%

Over 3.5 Goals15.7%

4+ Goals15.7%

Under 0.5 Goals12.6%

Exactly 0 Goals12.6%

Over 4.5 Goals6.0%

Over 5.5 Goals1.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score76.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)64.3%

Home Clean Sheet53.3%

Away Team to Score46.7%

Home Win to Nil40.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)35.7%

Away Clean Sheet23.6%

Away Win to Nil11.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.576.4%

Away Exactly 053.3%

Away Over 0.546.7%

Home Over 1.542.4%

Home Exactly 134.1%

Away Exactly 133.5%

Home Exactly 224.6%

Home Exactly 023.6%

Home Over 2.517.8%

Home 3+ Goals17.8%

Away Over 1.513.2%

Away Exactly 210.5%

Away Over 2.52.6%

Away 3+ Goals2.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)88.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away88.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)83.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home83.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)70.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away70.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)57.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)43.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away43.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)29.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home29.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw27.8%

Home to win by 127.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.6%

Home to win by 217.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)16.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw12.1%

Away to win by 112.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)11.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home11.6%

Home to win by 3+11.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)4.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away4.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)3.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home3.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.3%

Away to win by 23.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.8%

Away to win by 3+0.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.554.2%

Home & No BTTS40.8%

Home & Under 2.531.3%

Home & Over 2.525.7%

BTTS & Over 2.524.3%

Draw & Under 2.524.0%

Home & BTTS16.2%

Draw & BTTS14.3%

BTTS & Under 2.511.4%

Away & No BTTS11.0%

Away & Under 2.510.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.1%

Away & Over 2.55.8%

Away & BTTS5.2%

Draw & Over 2.52.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.576.0%

HT Over 0.560.7%

HT Draw46.9%

2nd Half More Goals40.4%

HT Under 0.539.3%

HT Home Win39.1%

HT/FT Home/Home34.7%

Equal Goals Each Half30.0%

1st Half More Goals29.7%

HT Over 1.524.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home20.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw19.4%

HT Away Win14.0%

HT Both Teams Score11.8%

HT/FT Away/Away8.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.7%

HT/FT Away/Home1.8%

HT/FT Home/Away0.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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