Brazil · Serie A

Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense

Kick-off 23:30 · Mon, Oct 12

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

75% confidence

Chapecoense-sc 13.3% Draw 12.0% Atletico Paranaense 74.7%

Over 2.5 - 95% BTTS - 85%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

88%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

85%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-4 at 5.3%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Atletico Paranaense: 7 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-4

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.3%

Exact-score model probability

Chapecoense-sc

L L W L W D

Form 2-1-3 Goals 8:13 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 2.17

Atletico Paranaense

W D L D W D

Form 2-3-1 Goals 13:13 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 2.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

Chapecoense-sc win13.3%

Draw12.0%

Atletico Paranaense win74.7%

Over 1.5 goals98.8%

Over 2.5 goals94.6%

Over 3.5 goals86.4%

Both teams to score85.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 2.5 Goals

91.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

91.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

91.0%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.590.9%

Goal in Both Halves90.9%

Home or Away (12)85.9%

Draw No Bet - Away84.7%

Draw or Away (X2)83.9%

Away Win72.7%

Home or Draw (1X)24.4%

Draw No Bet - Home15.3%

Home Win13.2%

Draw11.2%

Exactly 1 Goal1.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.9%

Over 1.5 Goals95.7%

Over 2.5 Goals91.8%

Over 3.5 Goals83.9%

4+ Goals83.9%

Over 4.5 Goals71.5%

Over 5.5 Goals56.1%

Total Goals Even48.6%

Total Goals Odd48.5%

Under 5.5 Goals43.9%

Under 4.5 Goals28.5%

2-4 Goals24.2%

3-4 Goals20.3%

Under 3.5 Goals16.1%

1-3 Goals13.0%

2-3 Goals11.8%

Under 2.5 Goals8.2%

Exactly 3 Goals8.0%

1-2 Goals5.1%

Under 1.5 Goals4.3%

Exactly 2 Goals3.8%

Under 0.5 Goals3.1%

Exactly 0 Goals0.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score95.6%

Home Team to Score84.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)82.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)17.3%

Away Clean Sheet13.1%

Away Win to Nil12.9%

Home Clean Sheet1.5%

Home Win to Nil1.3%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.595.6%

Away Over 1.589.4%

Home Over 0.584.0%

Away Over 2.576.4%

Away 3+ Goals76.4%

Home Over 1.557.7%

Home Over 2.531.4%

Home 3+ Goals31.4%

Home Exactly 126.3%

Home Exactly 226.3%

Home Exactly 013.1%

Away Exactly 213.1%

Away Exactly 16.2%

Away Exactly 01.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away96.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)94.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away94.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)91.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away91.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)90.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)83.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away83.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)82.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home82.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)72.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)70.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home70.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)57.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away57.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)55.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home55.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)41.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away41.6%

Away to win by 3+41.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)39.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home39.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)26.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away26.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)24.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home24.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw16.3%

Away to win by 216.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw15.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw14.9%

Away to win by 114.9%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)14.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away14.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)13.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw11.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw7.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw7.0%

Home to win by 17.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)6.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away6.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)6.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home6.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw3.7%

Home to win by 23.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home2.4%

Home to win by 3+2.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.581.0%

Away & Over 2.570.1%

Away & BTTS59.8%

Away & No BTTS12.9%

Home & Over 2.512.4%

Home & BTTS11.9%

Draw & BTTS11.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.8%

Draw & Over 2.59.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.53.6%

Away & Under 2.52.6%

Draw & Under 2.51.9%

BTTS & Under 2.51.7%

Home & No BTTS1.3%

Home & Under 2.50.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.593.9%

HT Over 1.576.9%

HT Away Win60.8%

HT/FT Away/Away55.3%

2nd Half More Goals51.6%

HT Both Teams Score50.5%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.523.1%

HT Draw21.9%

HT Home Win17.3%

Equal Goals Each Half15.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.1%

HT/FT Home/Home7.7%

HT Under 0.56.1%

HT/FT Home/Away6.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home3.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.6%

HT/FT Away/Home1.9%

Corners (12)

Over 8.5 Corners71.4%

Home Over 4.5 Corners68.7%

Under 11.5 Corners64.7%

Over 9.5 Corners59.5%

Home Most Corners58.1%

Under 10.5 Corners52.9%

Away Over 4.5 Corners49.3%

Over 10.5 Corners47.1%

Under 9.5 Corners40.5%

Over 11.5 Corners35.3%

Away Most Corners30.2%

Under 8.5 Corners28.6%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards84.9%

Under 4.5 Cards71.3%

Over 2.5 Cards69.1%

Under 3.5 Cards52.2%

Over 3.5 Cards47.8%

Under 2.5 Cards30.9%

Over 4.5 Cards28.7%

Over 5.5 Cards15.1%

Over 0.5 Red Cards14.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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