Brazil · Serie A

Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia

Kick-off 15:00 · Sun, Aug 16

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

65% confidence

Chapecoense-sc 17.3% Draw 17.4% Bahia 65.3%

Over 2.5 - 83% BTTS - 75%

🎯 Best Pick

Away Win

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 7.5%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Bahia: 1 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.5%

Exact-score model probability

Chapecoense-sc

L D L L L L

Form 0-1-5 Goals 6:15 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 2.5

Bahia

D D D D W L

Form 1-4-1 Goals 6:5 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 0.83

Head to head · last 1

Chapecoense-sc 0wins ·0 draws ·Bahia 1wins

Chapecoense-sc 0-2 BahiaJul 17, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Chapecoense-sc win17.3%

Draw17.4%

Bahia win65.3%

Over 1.5 goals94.5%

Over 2.5 goals82.5%

Over 3.5 goals65.5%

Both teams to score75.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

91.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

91.9%

HT Over 0.5

86.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)83.7%

Draw or Away (X2)81.8%

Both Halves Over 0.579.4%

Goal in Both Halves79.4%

Draw No Bet - Away78.7%

Away Win65.8%

Home or Draw (1X)33.8%

Draw No Bet - Home21.3%

Home Win17.9%

Draw16.0%

Exactly 1 Goal5.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.5%

Over 1.5 Goals93.5%

Over 2.5 Goals82.2%

Under 5.5 Goals70.8%

Over 3.5 Goals65.3%

4+ Goals65.3%

Under 4.5 Goals53.7%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Total Goals Even49.8%

2-4 Goals47.2%

Over 4.5 Goals46.3%

3-4 Goals35.9%

Under 3.5 Goals34.7%

1-3 Goals33.3%

Over 5.5 Goals29.2%

2-3 Goals28.2%

Under 2.5 Goals17.8%

Exactly 3 Goals16.9%

1-2 Goals16.3%

Exactly 2 Goals11.3%

Under 1.5 Goals6.5%

Under 0.5 Goals1.5%

Exactly 0 Goals1.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score94.4%

Home Team to Score78.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)74.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)25.7%

Away Clean Sheet21.2%

Away Win to Nil20.1%

Home Clean Sheet5.3%

Home Win to Nil4.1%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.594.4%

Away Over 1.578.9%

Home Over 0.578.4%

Away Over 2.556.1%

Away 3+ Goals56.1%

Home Over 1.545.6%

Home Exactly 132.8%

Home Exactly 225.4%

Away Exactly 222.8%

Home Exactly 021.2%

Home Over 2.520.2%

Home 3+ Goals20.2%

Away Exactly 115.5%

Away Exactly 05.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away96.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)92.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home92.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)91.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away91.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)84.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home84.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)81.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away81.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)71.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home71.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)65.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)53.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home53.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)46.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away46.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)33.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home33.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)28.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away28.6%

Away to win by 3+28.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw19.3%

Away to win by 119.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw18.0%

Away to win by 218.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)17.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)15.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away15.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw13.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw10.1%

Home to win by 110.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw8.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)7.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home7.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)6.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away6.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw5.0%

Home to win by 25.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw4.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)2.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home2.8%

Home to win by 3+2.8%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away2.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.569.2%

Away & Over 2.557.6%

Away & BTTS45.7%

Away & No BTTS20.1%

Draw & BTTS14.9%

Home & Over 2.514.8%

Home & BTTS13.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.513.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.512.4%

Draw & Over 2.59.8%

Away & Under 2.58.2%

Draw & Under 2.56.2%

BTTS & Under 2.55.1%

Home & No BTTS4.1%

Home & Under 2.53.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.586.7%

HT Over 1.560.0%

HT Away Win51.8%

2nd Half More Goals48.6%

HT/FT Away/Away45.4%

HT Under 1.540.0%

HT Both Teams Score36.8%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw28.6%

HT Home Win19.6%

Equal Goals Each Half19.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away15.9%

HT Under 0.513.3%

HT/FT Home/Home10.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home5.6%

HT/FT Home/Away4.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Away/Home1.9%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners69.7%

Over 8.5 Corners66.7%

Away Over 4.5 Corners61.6%

Under 10.5 Corners58.3%

Over 9.5 Corners54.2%

Away Most Corners52.0%

Home Over 4.5 Corners49.9%

Under 9.5 Corners45.8%

Over 10.5 Corners41.7%

Home Most Corners35.5%

Under 8.5 Corners33.3%

Over 11.5 Corners30.3%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards83.5%

Over 2.5 Cards70.9%

Under 4.5 Cards69.4%

Under 3.5 Cards50.1%

Over 3.5 Cards49.9%

Over 4.5 Cards30.6%

Under 2.5 Cards29.1%

Over 5.5 Cards16.5%

Over 0.5 Red Cards14.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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