Brazil · Serie A

Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense

Kick-off 23:30 · Sat, Oct 24

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

65% confidence

Chapecoense-sc 20.3% Draw 15.2% Fluminense 64.5%

Over 2.5 - 93% BTTS - 86%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

86%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

85%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-3 at 5.7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Fluminense: 3 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.7%

Exact-score model probability

Chapecoense-sc

L L L L W L

Form 1-0-5 Goals 5:14 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 2.33

Fluminense

L L W W W D

Form 3-1-2 Goals 12:7 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

Chapecoense-sc win20.3%

Draw15.2%

Fluminense win64.5%

Over 1.5 goals98.2%

Over 2.5 goals92.6%

Over 3.5 goals82.5%

Both teams to score86.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 2.5 Goals

91.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

89.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home

89.8%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.588.7%

Goal in Both Halves88.7%

Home or Away (12)84.4%

Draw or Away (X2)78.4%

Draw No Bet - Away75.9%

Away Win64.0%

Home or Draw (1X)34.7%

Draw No Bet - Home24.1%

Home Win20.4%

Draw14.4%

Exactly 1 Goal1.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.5%

Over 1.5 Goals96.7%

Over 2.5 Goals91.5%

Over 3.5 Goals81.5%

4+ Goals81.5%

Over 4.5 Goals67.1%

Over 5.5 Goals50.5%

Under 5.5 Goals49.5%

Total Goals Odd49.4%

Total Goals Even49.4%

Under 4.5 Goals32.9%

2-4 Goals29.6%

3-4 Goals24.4%

Under 3.5 Goals18.5%

1-3 Goals17.0%

2-3 Goals15.2%

Exactly 3 Goals10.0%

Under 2.5 Goals8.5%

1-2 Goals7.0%

Exactly 2 Goals5.2%

Under 1.5 Goals3.3%

Under 0.5 Goals1.5%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score96.1%

Home Team to Score87.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)85.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)15.0%

Away Clean Sheet11.4%

Away Win to Nil11.1%

Home Clean Sheet2.7%

Home Win to Nil2.4%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.596.1%

Home Over 0.587.4%

Away Over 1.586.3%

Away Over 2.568.7%

Away 3+ Goals68.7%

Home Over 1.562.8%

Home Over 2.536.2%

Home 3+ Goals36.2%

Home Exactly 226.6%

Home Exactly 124.6%

Away Exactly 217.6%

Home Exactly 011.4%

Away Exactly 19.7%

Away Exactly 02.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.1%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)95.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)94.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away94.3%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)89.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home89.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)88.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away88.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)80.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home80.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)78.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away78.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)67.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home67.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)64.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)51.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home51.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)47.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away47.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)34.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home34.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)31.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away31.0%

Away to win by 3+31.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)20.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)17.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away17.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.8%

Away to win by 116.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw16.2%

Away to win by 216.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw13.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)10.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home10.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw10.1%

Home to win by 110.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)9.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away9.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw8.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw5.8%

Home to win by 25.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw5.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)4.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home4.5%

Home to win by 3+4.5%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)3.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away3.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw2.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.582.6%

Away & Over 2.560.9%

Away & BTTS53.0%

Home & Over 2.519.0%

Home & BTTS18.0%

Draw & BTTS14.1%

Draw & Over 2.511.6%

Away & No BTTS11.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.54.9%

Away & Under 2.53.2%

Draw & Under 2.52.7%

Home & No BTTS2.4%

BTTS & Under 2.52.4%

Home & Under 2.51.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.592.5%

HT Over 1.573.2%

HT Away Win52.7%

2nd Half More Goals51.0%

HT Both Teams Score49.9%

HT/FT Away/Away45.5%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.526.8%

HT Draw24.8%

HT Home Win22.6%

Equal Goals Each Half16.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away13.8%

HT/FT Home/Home12.2%

HT Under 0.57.5%

HT/FT Home/Away5.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home5.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Away/Home2.7%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners73.4%

Away Most Corners72.2%

Away Over 4.5 Corners71.5%

Over 8.5 Corners62.8%

Under 10.5 Corners62.5%

Over 9.5 Corners50.0%

Under 9.5 Corners50.0%

Over 10.5 Corners37.5%

Under 8.5 Corners37.2%

Home Over 4.5 Corners30.6%

Over 11.5 Corners26.6%

Home Most Corners17.8%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards83.5%

Over 2.5 Cards70.9%

Under 4.5 Cards69.4%

Under 3.5 Cards50.1%

Over 3.5 Cards49.9%

Over 4.5 Cards30.6%

Under 2.5 Cards29.1%

Over 5.5 Cards16.5%

Over 0.5 Red Cards14.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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