Brazil · Serie A

Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo

Kick-off 22:30 · Sun, Aug 23

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

44% confidence

Chapecoense-sc 43.5% Draw 18.4% Sao Paulo 38.1%

Over 2.5 - 91% BTTS - 88%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

88%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

82%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 5.9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Sao Paulo: 2 points versus 3 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.9%

Exact-score model probability

Chapecoense-sc

D L D L L L

Form 0-2-4 Goals 7:15 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 2.5

Sao Paulo

D L D L L D

Form 0-3-3 Goals 5:8 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

Chapecoense-sc win43.5%

Draw18.4%

Sao Paulo win38.1%

Over 1.5 goals97.6%

Over 2.5 goals90.7%

Over 3.5 goals79.0%

Both teams to score87.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Cards

91.6%

HT Over 0.5

91.3%

Over 2.5 Goals

90.4%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.586.8%

Goal in Both Halves86.8%

Home or Away (12)82.1%

Home or Draw (1X)61.2%

Draw or Away (X2)55.9%

Draw No Bet - Home53.2%

Draw No Bet - Away46.8%

Home Win43.7%

Away Win38.4%

Draw17.5%

Exactly 1 Goal2.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals99.2%

Over 1.5 Goals96.8%

Over 2.5 Goals90.4%

Over 3.5 Goals78.7%

4+ Goals78.7%

Over 4.5 Goals62.9%

Under 5.5 Goals54.4%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Over 5.5 Goals45.6%

Under 4.5 Goals37.1%

2-4 Goals33.9%

3-4 Goals27.5%

Under 3.5 Goals21.3%

1-3 Goals20.4%

2-3 Goals18.1%

Exactly 3 Goals11.7%

Under 2.5 Goals9.6%

1-2 Goals8.8%

Exactly 2 Goals6.4%

Under 1.5 Goals3.2%

Under 0.5 Goals0.8%

Exactly 0 Goals0.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score93.5%

Away Team to Score92.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)86.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)13.2%

Home Clean Sheet7.1%

Home Win to Nil6.7%

Away Clean Sheet6.1%

Away Win to Nil5.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.593.5%

Away Over 0.592.5%

Home Over 1.576.5%

Away Over 1.573.6%

Home Over 2.552.7%

Home 3+ Goals52.7%

Away Over 2.548.8%

Away 3+ Goals48.8%

Away Exactly 224.8%

Home Exactly 223.8%

Away Exactly 118.8%

Home Exactly 117.0%

Away Exactly 07.1%

Home Exactly 06.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)96.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away96.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)94.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home94.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)92.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away92.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)87.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home87.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)84.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away84.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)76.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home76.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)72.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away72.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)61.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home61.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)55.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away55.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)43.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)38.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)27.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home27.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)23.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away23.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.3%

Home to win by 116.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw15.3%

Away to win by 115.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)15.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home15.0%

Home to win by 3+15.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw12.4%

Home to win by 212.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)12.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away12.0%

Away to win by 3+12.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw11.0%

Away to win by 211.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)7.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home7.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw6.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)5.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away5.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.9%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away2.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.7%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.583.6%

Home & Over 2.540.8%

Home & BTTS37.0%

Away & Over 2.535.7%

Away & BTTS32.7%

Draw & BTTS17.1%

Draw & Over 2.513.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.56.8%

Home & No BTTS6.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.56.0%

Away & No BTTS5.6%

Draw & Under 2.53.6%

BTTS & Under 2.53.2%

Home & Under 2.52.9%

Away & Under 2.52.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.591.3%

HT Over 1.570.2%

2nd Half More Goals50.4%

HT Both Teams Score49.8%

HT Home Win38.1%

HT Away Win34.6%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.529.8%

HT/FT Home/Home28.3%

HT Draw27.3%

HT/FT Away/Away24.4%

Equal Goals Each Half17.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home10.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.8%

HT Under 0.58.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Away/Home4.8%

HT/FT Home/Away4.4%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners75.2%

Away Most Corners70.6%

Away Over 4.5 Corners69.2%

Under 10.5 Corners64.5%

Over 8.5 Corners60.8%

Under 9.5 Corners52.2%

Over 9.5 Corners47.8%

Under 8.5 Corners39.2%

Over 10.5 Corners35.5%

Home Over 4.5 Corners30.6%

Over 11.5 Corners24.8%

Home Most Corners19.1%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards91.6%

Under 4.5 Cards81.5%

Under 3.5 Cards64.7%

Over 2.5 Cards57.7%

Under 2.5 Cards42.3%

Over 3.5 Cards35.3%

Over 4.5 Cards18.5%

Over 0.5 Red Cards12.0%

Over 5.5 Cards8.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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