Belgium · Jupiler Pro League

Charleroi vs KV Mechelen

Kick-off 17:15 · Sat, Aug 22

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

49% confidence

Charleroi 48.9% Draw 27.8% KV Mechelen 23.3%

Over 2.5 - 88% BTTS - 46%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-0 at 8.2%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Charleroi: 13 points versus 3 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Charleroi 1 wins, 1 draws, KV Mechelen 3 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.2%

Exact-score model probability

Charleroi

W W W D L W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 8:3 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 0.5

KV Mechelen

D L L D D L

Form 0-3-3 Goals 7:15 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 2.5

Head to head · last 5

Charleroi 1wins ·1 draws ·KV Mechelen 3wins

Charleroi 0-1 KV MechelenDec 7, 2025

Charleroi 0-2 KV MechelenSep 28, 2025

Charleroi 1-1 KV MechelenMay 18, 2025

Charleroi 3-0 KV MechelenApr 19, 2025

Charleroi 0-1 KV MechelenMar 8, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

Charleroi win48.9%

Draw27.8%

KV Mechelen win23.3%

Over 1.5 goals74.2%

Over 2.5 goals88.1%

Over 3.5 goals26.0%

Both teams to score46.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

91.9%

Home or Draw (1X)

91.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

91.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)91.7%

Draw No Bet - Home91.3%

Home or Away (12)88.1%

Home Win80.4%

Both Halves Over 0.577.1%

Goal in Both Halves77.1%

Draw or Away (X2)18.9%

Draw11.3%

Draw No Bet - Away8.7%

Away Win7.7%

Exactly 1 Goal6.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.9%

Over 1.5 Goals91.9%

Over 2.5 Goals79.1%

Under 5.5 Goals74.9%

Over 3.5 Goals61.0%

4+ Goals61.0%

Under 4.5 Goals58.4%

2-4 Goals50.3%

Total Goals Even49.7%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

Over 4.5 Goals41.6%

Under 3.5 Goals39.0%

3-4 Goals37.5%

1-3 Goals37.0%

2-3 Goals31.0%

Over 5.5 Goals25.1%

Under 2.5 Goals20.9%

1-2 Goals18.8%

Exactly 3 Goals18.2%

Exactly 2 Goals12.8%

Under 1.5 Goals8.1%

Under 0.5 Goals2.1%

Exactly 0 Goals1.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.6%

Away Team to Score62.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)60.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)40.0%

Home Clean Sheet36.9%

Home Win to Nil35.5%

Away Clean Sheet3.8%

Away Win to Nil2.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.6%

Home Over 1.583.2%

Home Over 2.562.9%

Home 3+ Goals62.9%

Away Over 0.562.4%

Away Exactly 036.9%

Away Exactly 136.5%

Away Over 1.525.8%

Home Exactly 220.3%

Away Exactly 218.1%

Home Exactly 112.4%

Away Over 2.57.8%

Away 3+ Goals7.8%

Home Exactly 03.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.3%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home96.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)93.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)91.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home91.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)86.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away86.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)80.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)73.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away73.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)63.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home63.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)56.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away56.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)43.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home43.2%

Home to win by 3+43.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)36.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away36.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)25.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home25.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.8%

Home to win by 219.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)18.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away18.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.4%

Home to win by 117.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)13.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home13.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw12.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)7.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw7.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)5.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home5.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw5.2%

Away to win by 15.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.8%

Away to win by 21.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.6%

Away to win by 3+0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.568.2%

BTTS & Over 2.555.5%

Home & BTTS44.8%

Home & No BTTS35.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.523.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.515.6%

Home & Under 2.512.1%

Draw & BTTS9.9%

Draw & Under 2.56.0%

Away & Over 2.55.6%

Draw & Over 2.55.3%

Away & BTTS5.3%

BTTS & Under 2.54.6%

Away & No BTTS2.4%

Away & Under 2.52.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.585.3%

HT Home Win63.0%

HT/FT Home/Home59.4%

HT Over 1.557.2%

2nd Half More Goals48.1%

HT Under 1.542.8%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Both Teams Score27.7%

HT Draw26.0%

Equal Goals Each Half19.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.7%

HT Under 0.514.7%

HT Away Win11.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.6%

HT/FT Away/Away4.2%

HT/FT Away/Home4.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.7%

HT/FT Home/Away0.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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