Belgium · Jupiler Pro League

Charleroi vs OH Leuven

Kick-off 15:00 · Sun, Aug 9

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

53% confidence

Charleroi 52.5% Draw 28.5% OH Leuven 19.0%

Over 2.5 - 61% BTTS - 54%

🎯 Best Pick

Home Win

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ Market disagrees - bookies say 52%

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

78%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 11.4%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Charleroi: 13 points versus 5 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.66 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.4%

Exact-score model probability

Bookmaker implied chance

52%

Market does not fully agree

Charleroi

W D L W W W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 8:2 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 0.33

OH Leuven

L D W L D L

Form 1-2-3 Goals 8:10 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.67

Head to head · last 5

Charleroi 2wins ·2 draws ·OH Leuven 1wins

Charleroi 1-1 OH LeuvenMay 19, 2026

Charleroi 2-0 OH LeuvenApr 25, 2026

Charleroi 0-2 OH LeuvenMar 14, 2026

Charleroi 2-2 OH LeuvenJul 27, 2025

Charleroi 2-1 OH LeuvenMay 24, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

Charleroi win52.5%

Draw28.5%

OH Leuven win19.0%

Over 1.5 goals68.5%

Over 2.5 goals61.0%

Over 3.5 goals20.4%

Both teams to score53.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 4.5 Goals

84.7%

Home Team to Score

84.7%

Home Over 0.5

84.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)81.9%

Home or Away (12)77.8%

Draw No Bet - Home76.7%

Home Win59.7%

Both Halves Over 0.556.4%

Goal in Both Halves56.4%

Draw or Away (X2)40.3%

Draw No Bet - Away23.3%

Draw22.1%

Away Win18.1%

Exactly 1 Goal17.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals93.9%

Under 5.5 Goals93.5%

Under 4.5 Goals84.7%

Over 1.5 Goals77.0%

Under 3.5 Goals69.1%

1-3 Goals63.0%

2-4 Goals61.7%

Over 2.5 Goals53.2%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 2.5 Goals46.8%

2-3 Goals46.1%

1-2 Goals40.8%

3-4 Goals37.9%

Over 3.5 Goals30.9%

4+ Goals30.9%

Exactly 2 Goals23.8%

Under 1.5 Goals23.0%

Exactly 3 Goals22.3%

Over 4.5 Goals15.3%

Over 5.5 Goals6.5%

Under 0.5 Goals6.1%

Exactly 0 Goals6.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score84.7%

Away Team to Score60.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)51.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)48.8%

Home Clean Sheet39.6%

Home Win to Nil33.5%

Away Clean Sheet15.3%

Away Win to Nil9.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.584.7%

Away Over 0.560.4%

Home Over 1.556.0%

Away Exactly 039.6%

Away Exactly 136.7%

Home Over 2.529.0%

Home 3+ Goals29.0%

Home Exactly 128.7%

Home Exactly 227.0%

Away Over 1.523.7%

Away Exactly 217.0%

Home Exactly 015.3%

Away Over 2.56.7%

Away 3+ Goals6.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)94.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home94.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)93.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away93.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)83.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away83.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)81.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home81.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)64.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away64.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)59.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)40.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away40.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)35.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home35.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw24.6%

Home to win by 124.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.4%

Home to win by 218.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)18.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)16.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home16.7%

Home to win by 3+16.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw12.1%

Away to win by 112.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw10.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)6.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home6.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)6.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away6.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.5%

Away to win by 24.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.5%

Away to win by 3+1.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.540.7%

Home & Over 2.537.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.536.3%

Home & No BTTS33.5%

Home & BTTS26.2%

Home & Under 2.522.0%

Draw & Under 2.516.6%

Draw & BTTS16.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.5%

BTTS & Under 2.510.5%

Away & Over 2.59.9%

Away & No BTTS9.2%

Away & BTTS8.9%

Away & Under 2.58.2%

Draw & Over 2.55.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.571.7%

HT Under 1.564.0%

2nd Half More Goals43.9%

HT Home Win43.6%

HT Draw39.2%

HT/FT Home/Home38.1%

HT Over 1.536.0%

1st Half More Goals31.2%

HT Under 0.528.3%

Equal Goals Each Half25.0%

HT Both Teams Score19.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home18.8%

HT Away Win17.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw13.4%

HT/FT Away/Away9.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Away/Home2.9%

HT/FT Home/Away1.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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