USA · Major League Soccer

Charlotte vs Chicago Fire

Kick-off 00:30 · Sun, Sep 27

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

78% confidence

Charlotte 77.7% Draw 10.8% Chicago Fire 11.5%

Over 2.5 - 96% BTTS - 85%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

88%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

85%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-1 at 5.2%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Charlotte: 12 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.84 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.2%

Exact-score model probability

Charlotte

D W D W W D

Form 3-3-0 Goals 13:8 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1.33

Chicago Fire

L L D D D W

Form 1-3-2 Goals 10:13 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 2.17

Head to head · last 1

Charlotte 0wins ·0 draws ·Chicago Fire 1wins

Charlotte 1-2 Chicago FireAug 2, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Charlotte win77.7%

Draw10.8%

Chicago Fire win11.5%

Over 1.5 goals99.0%

Over 2.5 goals95.5%

Over 3.5 goals88.2%

Both teams to score85.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Both Halves Over 0.5

91.9%

Goal in Both Halves

91.9%

Over 2.5 Goals

91.6%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.591.9%

Goal in Both Halves91.9%

Draw No Bet - Home87.0%

Home or Away (12)85.9%

Home or Draw (1X)84.8%

Home Win74.8%

Draw or Away (X2)21.2%

Draw No Bet - Away13.0%

Away Win11.1%

Draw10.0%

Exactly 1 Goal1.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.8%

Over 1.5 Goals94.8%

Over 2.5 Goals91.6%

Over 3.5 Goals84.7%

4+ Goals84.7%

Over 4.5 Goals73.4%

Over 5.5 Goals58.8%

Total Goals Odd48.0%

Total Goals Even48.0%

Under 5.5 Goals41.2%

Under 4.5 Goals26.6%

2-4 Goals21.4%

3-4 Goals18.2%

Under 3.5 Goals15.3%

1-3 Goals11.1%

2-3 Goals10.2%

Under 2.5 Goals8.4%

Exactly 3 Goals6.9%

Under 1.5 Goals5.2%

Under 0.5 Goals4.2%

1-2 Goals4.2%

Exactly 2 Goals3.2%

Exactly 0 Goals0.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.8%

Away Team to Score82.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)81.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)18.2%

Home Clean Sheet13.2%

Home Win to Nil13.0%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil1.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.8%

Home Over 1.589.8%

Away Over 0.582.8%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 1.556.6%

Away Over 2.530.6%

Away 3+ Goals30.6%

Away Exactly 126.2%

Away Exactly 226.0%

Away Exactly 013.2%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)95.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)90.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home90.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)87.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)84.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home84.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)78.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away78.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)74.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)66.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away66.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)61.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home61.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)50.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away50.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)45.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home45.1%

Home to win by 3+45.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)35.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away35.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)29.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home29.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)21.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away21.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)17.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home17.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.8%

Home to win by 215.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw13.8%

Home to win by 113.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw12.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)11.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw8.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)8.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home8.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw6.1%

Away to win by 16.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)5.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away5.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.1%

Away to win by 23.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.0%

Away to win by 3+2.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.580.4%

Home & Over 2.572.5%

Home & BTTS61.7%

Home & No BTTS13.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.2%

Away & Over 2.510.5%

Away & BTTS10.2%

Draw & BTTS9.9%

Draw & Over 2.58.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.53.0%

Home & Under 2.52.2%

Draw & Under 2.51.5%

BTTS & Under 2.51.4%

Away & No BTTS1.0%

Away & Under 2.50.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.594.6%

HT Over 1.578.8%

HT Home Win63.6%

HT/FT Home/Home58.7%

2nd Half More Goals52.0%

HT Both Teams Score51.2%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Under 1.521.2%

HT Draw20.6%

HT Away Win15.7%

Equal Goals Each Half15.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.9%

HT/FT Away/Away6.5%

HT/FT Away/Home6.0%

HT Under 0.55.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.1%

HT/FT Home/Away1.6%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners71.6%

Over 8.5 Corners64.8%

Under 10.5 Corners60.4%

Away Over 4.5 Corners58.8%

Over 9.5 Corners52.1%

Away Most Corners49.9%

Home Over 4.5 Corners49.9%

Under 9.5 Corners47.9%

Over 10.5 Corners39.6%

Home Most Corners37.4%

Under 8.5 Corners35.2%

Over 11.5 Corners28.4%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards81.1%

Over 2.5 Cards73.6%

Under 4.5 Cards66.1%

Over 3.5 Cards53.3%

Under 3.5 Cards46.7%

Over 4.5 Cards33.9%

Under 2.5 Cards26.4%

Over 5.5 Cards18.9%

Over 0.5 Red Cards15.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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