England · Premier League

Chelsea vs Bournemouth

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Oct 10

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

47% confidence

Chelsea 46.9% Draw 25.6% Bournemouth 27.5%

Over 2.5 - 92% BTTS - 88%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

88%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 7.3%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Chelsea: 10 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.3%

Exact-score model probability

Chelsea

L D W L W W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 15:13 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 2.17

Bournemouth

L D W D D L

Form 1-3-2 Goals 10:8 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.33

Head to head · last 5

Chelsea 2wins ·3 draws ·Bournemouth 0wins

Chelsea 2-2 BournemouthDec 30, 2025

Chelsea 0-0 BournemouthDec 6, 2025

Chelsea 2-2 BournemouthJan 14, 2025

Chelsea 1-0 BournemouthSep 14, 2024

Chelsea 2-1 BournemouthMay 19, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Chelsea win46.9%

Draw25.6%

Bournemouth win27.5%

Over 1.5 goals82.4%

Over 2.5 goals92.4%

Over 3.5 goals37.0%

Both teams to score88.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Team to Score

91.9%

Home Over 0.5

91.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

91.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)81.0%

Both Halves Over 0.578.8%

Goal in Both Halves78.8%

Home or Draw (1X)70.8%

Draw No Bet - Home64.2%

Home Win52.0%

Draw or Away (X2)47.8%

Draw No Bet - Away35.8%

Away Win29.0%

Draw18.8%

Exactly 1 Goal5.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.7%

Over 1.5 Goals93.4%

Over 2.5 Goals81.7%

Under 5.5 Goals71.7%

Over 3.5 Goals64.4%

4+ Goals64.4%

Under 4.5 Goals54.8%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

2-4 Goals48.1%

Over 4.5 Goals45.2%

3-4 Goals36.4%

Under 3.5 Goals35.6%

1-3 Goals34.3%

2-3 Goals29.0%

Over 5.5 Goals28.3%

Under 2.5 Goals18.3%

Exactly 3 Goals17.3%

1-2 Goals17.0%

Exactly 2 Goals11.7%

Under 1.5 Goals6.6%

Under 0.5 Goals1.3%

Exactly 0 Goals1.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score91.9%

Away Team to Score84.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)78.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)21.9%

Home Clean Sheet15.0%

Home Win to Nil13.8%

Away Clean Sheet8.0%

Away Win to Nil6.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.591.9%

Away Over 0.584.8%

Home Over 1.571.8%

Away Over 1.556.4%

Home Over 2.546.3%

Home 3+ Goals46.3%

Away Over 2.529.4%

Away 3+ Goals29.4%

Away Exactly 128.5%

Away Exactly 227.0%

Home Exactly 225.5%

Home Exactly 120.1%

Away Exactly 015.0%

Home Exactly 08.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)96.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away96.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)93.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home93.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)91.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away91.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)85.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home85.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)82.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away82.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)70.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home70.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)66.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away66.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)52.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)47.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away47.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)33.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home33.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)29.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.1%

Home to win by 119.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)17.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home17.9%

Home to win by 3+17.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.1%

Home to win by 215.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)14.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away14.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw14.3%

Away to win by 114.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw9.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw8.5%

Away to win by 28.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)8.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home8.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)6.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away6.3%

Away to win by 3+6.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw4.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)3.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home3.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.572.3%

Home & Over 2.545.2%

Home & BTTS38.2%

Away & Over 2.524.6%

Away & BTTS22.3%

Draw & BTTS17.6%

Home & No BTTS13.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.512.5%

Draw & Over 2.511.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.3%

Home & Under 2.56.9%

Draw & Under 2.56.9%

Away & No BTTS6.8%

BTTS & Under 2.55.7%

Away & Under 2.54.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.586.4%

HT Over 1.559.2%

2nd Half More Goals48.5%

HT Home Win42.2%

HT Under 1.540.8%

HT Both Teams Score39.0%

HT/FT Home/Home33.9%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw30.5%

HT Away Win27.3%

Equal Goals Each Half19.2%

HT/FT Away/Away17.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.7%

HT Under 0.513.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Away/Home4.5%

HT/FT Home/Away3.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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