England · Premier League

Chelsea vs Brighton

Kick-off 14:00 · Sun, Aug 30

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

44% confidence

Chelsea 44.4% Draw 26.9% Brighton 28.7%

Over 2.5 - 62% BTTS - 61%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

78%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

73%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

61%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 9.5%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Chelsea: 10 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.5%

Exact-score model probability

Chelsea

W W L W L D

Form 3-1-2 Goals 9:7 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.17

Brighton

W D L L W L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 8:7 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.17

Head to head · last 5

Chelsea 2wins ·0 draws ·Brighton 3wins

Chelsea 0-3 BrightonApr 21, 2026

Chelsea 1-3 BrightonSep 27, 2025

Chelsea 0-3 BrightonFeb 14, 2025

Chelsea 4-2 BrightonSep 28, 2024

Chelsea 2-1 BrightonMay 15, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Chelsea win44.4%

Draw26.9%

Brighton win28.7%

Over 1.5 goals78.4%

Over 2.5 goals62.1%

Over 3.5 goals31.4%

Both teams to score60.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

90.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

90.2%

Away Team to Score

88.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)79.4%

Draw or Away (X2)76.7%

Draw No Bet - Away70.8%

Both Halves Over 0.567.5%

Goal in Both Halves67.5%

Away Win56.2%

Home or Draw (1X)43.8%

Draw No Bet - Home29.2%

Home Win23.2%

Draw20.6%

Exactly 1 Goal10.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.9%

Over 1.5 Goals86.2%

Under 5.5 Goals86.0%

Under 4.5 Goals72.9%

Over 2.5 Goals67.6%

2-4 Goals59.1%

Under 3.5 Goals54.1%

1-3 Goals50.9%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals45.9%

4+ Goals45.9%

3-4 Goals40.5%

2-3 Goals40.3%

Under 2.5 Goals32.4%

1-2 Goals29.3%

Over 4.5 Goals27.1%

Exactly 3 Goals21.6%

Exactly 2 Goals18.6%

Over 5.5 Goals14.0%

Under 1.5 Goals13.8%

Under 0.5 Goals3.1%

Exactly 0 Goals3.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score88.3%

Home Team to Score73.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)65.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)35.0%

Away Clean Sheet26.4%

Away Win to Nil23.3%

Home Clean Sheet11.6%

Home Win to Nil8.5%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.588.3%

Home Over 0.573.5%

Away Over 1.563.3%

Home Over 1.538.4%

Away Over 2.536.4%

Away 3+ Goals36.4%

Home Exactly 135.2%

Away Exactly 226.9%

Home Exactly 026.4%

Away Exactly 125.0%

Home Exactly 223.4%

Home Over 2.515.0%

Home 3+ Goals15.0%

Away Exactly 011.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.1%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.1%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)96.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away96.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)92.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home92.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)90.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away90.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)82.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home82.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)76.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away76.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)65.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home65.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)56.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)43.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home43.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)34.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away34.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)23.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw21.8%

Away to win by 121.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)17.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away17.5%

Away to win by 3+17.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw16.9%

Away to win by 216.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw13.5%

Home to win by 113.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw10.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)9.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home9.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)7.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away7.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw6.4%

Home to win by 26.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw4.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)3.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home3.3%

Home to win by 3+3.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away2.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw2.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.9%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.556.2%

Away & Over 2.542.5%

Away & BTTS32.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.523.6%

Away & No BTTS23.3%

Draw & BTTS17.5%

Home & Over 2.516.4%

Home & BTTS14.7%

Away & Under 2.513.7%

Draw & Under 2.511.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.4%

BTTS & Under 2.58.8%

Draw & Over 2.58.7%

Home & No BTTS8.5%

Home & Under 2.56.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.579.1%

HT Under 1.553.5%

HT Over 1.546.5%

2nd Half More Goals46.1%

HT Away Win43.2%

HT/FT Away/Away36.3%

HT Draw34.8%

1st Half More Goals31.9%

HT Both Teams Score28.0%

HT Home Win22.0%

Equal Goals Each Half22.0%

HT Under 0.520.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away16.3%

HT/FT Home/Home13.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home7.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Away3.7%

HT/FT Away/Home2.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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