England · Premier League

Chelsea vs Hull City

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Sep 12

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

49% confidence

Chelsea 48.6% Draw 28.6% Hull City 22.8%

Over 2.5 - 58% BTTS - 60%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

82%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

77%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

60%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 10.7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Chelsea: 12 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.66 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.7%

Exact-score model probability

Chelsea

W L W W W L

Form 4-0-2 Goals 17:12 Scored/game 2.83 Conceded/game 2

Hull City

L D W D W W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 5:2 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 0.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

Chelsea win48.6%

Draw28.6%

Hull City win22.8%

Over 1.5 goals72.1%

Over 2.5 goals57.8%

Over 3.5 goals23.7%

Both teams to score59.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Goals

91.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

90.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

90.2%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)77.0%

Draw or Away (X2)75.2%

Draw No Bet - Away67.9%

Both Halves Over 0.559.9%

Goal in Both Halves59.9%

Away Win52.3%

Home or Draw (1X)47.7%

Draw No Bet - Home32.1%

Home Win24.7%

Draw23.0%

Exactly 1 Goal14.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.0%

Under 5.5 Goals91.6%

Under 4.5 Goals81.5%

Over 1.5 Goals80.1%

Under 3.5 Goals64.6%

2-4 Goals61.6%

1-3 Goals59.7%

Over 2.5 Goals57.8%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals44.8%

Under 2.5 Goals42.2%

3-4 Goals39.2%

1-2 Goals37.3%

Over 3.5 Goals35.4%

4+ Goals35.4%

Exactly 2 Goals22.4%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Under 1.5 Goals19.9%

Over 4.5 Goals18.5%

Over 5.5 Goals8.4%

Under 0.5 Goals5.0%

Exactly 0 Goals5.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score83.8%

Home Team to Score69.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)58.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)41.9%

Away Clean Sheet30.6%

Away Win to Nil25.6%

Home Clean Sheet16.2%

Home Win to Nil11.2%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.583.8%

Home Over 0.569.4%

Away Over 1.554.3%

Home Exactly 136.2%

Home Over 1.533.2%

Home Exactly 030.6%

Away Exactly 129.5%

Away Over 2.527.5%

Away 3+ Goals27.5%

Away Exactly 226.8%

Home Exactly 221.4%

Away Exactly 016.2%

Home Over 2.511.7%

Home 3+ Goals11.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away96.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)94.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home94.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)90.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away90.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)86.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home86.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)75.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away75.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)70.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home70.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)52.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)47.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home47.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)29.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away29.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)24.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw22.9%

Away to win by 122.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw16.0%

Away to win by 216.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.9%

Home to win by 114.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)13.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away13.4%

Away to win by 3+13.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)9.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home9.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw8.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw6.8%

Home to win by 26.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)5.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away5.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home3.1%

Home to win by 3+3.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw2.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.6%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.547.5%

Away & Over 2.535.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.531.5%

Away & BTTS26.6%

Away & No BTTS25.6%

Draw & BTTS18.0%

Away & Under 2.517.2%

Draw & Under 2.515.6%

Home & Over 2.515.4%

Home & BTTS13.5%

Home & No BTTS11.2%

BTTS & Under 2.510.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.3%

Home & Under 2.59.3%

Draw & Over 2.57.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.574.1%

HT Under 1.560.9%

2nd Half More Goals44.6%

HT Away Win39.4%

HT Over 1.539.1%

HT Draw38.5%

HT/FT Away/Away32.7%

1st Half More Goals31.4%

HT Under 0.525.9%

Equal Goals Each Half24.0%

HT Both Teams Score23.1%

HT Home Win22.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away16.5%

HT/FT Home/Home14.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw13.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home8.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Away3.1%

HT/FT Away/Home1.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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