England · League Cup

Chelsea vs Leeds

Kick-off 20:00 · Wed, Sep 9

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

42% confidence

Chelsea 36.8% Draw 21.6% Leeds 41.6%

Over 2.5 - 80% BTTS - 79%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

79%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

78%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 7.6%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Chelsea: 12 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.6%

Exact-score model probability

Chelsea

L W W W L W

Form 4-0-2 Goals 13:10 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1.67

Leeds

D D W W L W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 6:5 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 0.83

Head to head · last 5

Chelsea 2wins ·1 draws ·Leeds 2wins

Chelsea 2-2 LeedsFeb 10, 2026

Chelsea 1-3 LeedsDec 3, 2025

Chelsea 1-0 LeedsMar 4, 2023

Chelsea 0-3 LeedsAug 21, 2022

Chelsea 3-0 LeedsMay 11, 2022

📈 Probability Breakdown

Chelsea win36.8%

Draw21.6%

Leeds win41.6%

Over 1.5 goals93.5%

Over 2.5 goals79.9%

Over 3.5 goals61.7%

Both teams to score78.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

90.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

90.9%

Over 1.5 Goals

90.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)79.1%

Both Halves Over 0.573.5%

Goal in Both Halves73.5%

Draw or Away (X2)62.0%

Home or Draw (1X)58.8%

Draw No Bet - Away52.1%

Draw No Bet - Home47.9%

Away Win41.2%

Home Win37.9%

Draw20.8%

Exactly 1 Goal7.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.0%

Over 1.5 Goals90.4%

Under 5.5 Goals79.5%

Over 2.5 Goals75.3%

Under 4.5 Goals64.1%

Over 3.5 Goals55.5%

4+ Goals55.5%

2-4 Goals54.4%

Total Goals Odd50.0%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Under 3.5 Goals44.5%

1-3 Goals42.5%

3-4 Goals39.3%

Over 4.5 Goals35.9%

2-3 Goals34.9%

Under 2.5 Goals24.7%

1-2 Goals22.7%

Over 5.5 Goals20.5%

Exactly 3 Goals19.8%

Exactly 2 Goals15.1%

Under 1.5 Goals9.6%

Under 0.5 Goals2.0%

Exactly 0 Goals1.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score86.6%

Home Team to Score85.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)74.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)26.0%

Away Clean Sheet14.5%

Home Clean Sheet13.4%

Away Win to Nil12.6%

Home Win to Nil11.4%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.586.6%

Home Over 0.585.4%

Away Over 1.559.7%

Home Over 1.557.4%

Away Over 2.532.7%

Away 3+ Goals32.7%

Home Over 2.530.4%

Home 3+ Goals30.4%

Home Exactly 128.0%

Away Exactly 227.1%

Home Exactly 227.0%

Away Exactly 126.9%

Home Exactly 014.5%

Away Exactly 013.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)90.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away90.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)89.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home89.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)79.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away79.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)77.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home77.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)62.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away62.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)58.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home58.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)41.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)37.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)22.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away22.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)20.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home20.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw18.3%

Away to win by 118.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.6%

Home to win by 117.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw12.2%

Away to win by 212.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw11.2%

Home to win by 211.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)10.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away10.6%

Away to win by 3+10.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)9.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home9.1%

Home to win by 3+9.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw6.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw5.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)4.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away4.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)3.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home3.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.8%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.3%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.566.5%

Away & Over 2.533.3%

Home & Over 2.530.6%

Away & BTTS28.6%

Home & BTTS26.5%

Draw & BTTS18.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.517.1%

Away & No BTTS12.6%

Draw & Over 2.511.4%

Home & No BTTS11.4%

Draw & Under 2.59.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.8%

Away & Under 2.57.8%

BTTS & Under 2.57.5%

Home & Under 2.57.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.583.0%

HT Over 1.552.9%

2nd Half More Goals47.4%

HT Under 1.547.1%

HT Both Teams Score34.6%

HT Away Win34.5%

HT Draw33.2%

HT Home Win32.4%

1st Half More Goals32.1%

HT/FT Away/Away25.5%

HT/FT Home/Home23.3%

Equal Goals Each Half20.5%

HT Under 0.517.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away12.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home11.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.6%

HT/FT Home/Away3.6%

HT/FT Away/Home3.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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