England · Premier League

Chelsea vs Tottenham

Kick-off 17:30 · Sat, Oct 24

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

61% confidence

Chelsea 61.1% Draw 21.6% Tottenham 17.3%

Over 2.5 - 93% BTTS - 77%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

83%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

77%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 7.4%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Chelsea: 10 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.4%

Exact-score model probability

Chelsea

W W L D W L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 16:11 Scored/game 2.67 Conceded/game 1.83

Tottenham

W D L D D L

Form 1-3-2 Goals 6:7 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.17

Head to head · last 5

Chelsea 5wins ·0 draws ·Tottenham 0wins

Chelsea 2-1 TottenhamMay 19, 2026

Chelsea 1-0 TottenhamNov 1, 2025

Chelsea 1-0 TottenhamApr 3, 2025

Chelsea 4-3 TottenhamDec 8, 2024

Chelsea 2-0 TottenhamMay 2, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Chelsea win61.1%

Draw21.6%

Tottenham win17.3%

Over 1.5 goals84.4%

Over 2.5 goals93.4%

Over 3.5 goals41.0%

Both teams to score76.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Draw No Bet - Home

90.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

90.9%

Home or Draw (1X)

90.5%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home90.9%

Home or Draw (1X)90.5%

Home or Away (12)88.3%

Both Halves Over 0.583.7%

Goal in Both Halves83.7%

Home Win80.3%

Draw or Away (X2)18.2%

Draw10.2%

Draw No Bet - Away9.1%

Away Win8.0%

Exactly 1 Goal3.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.9%

Over 1.5 Goals94.5%

Over 2.5 Goals86.0%

Over 3.5 Goals71.9%

4+ Goals71.9%

Under 5.5 Goals63.2%

Over 4.5 Goals54.4%

Total Goals Even49.3%

Total Goals Odd49.2%

Under 4.5 Goals45.6%

2-4 Goals40.1%

Over 5.5 Goals36.8%

3-4 Goals31.6%

Under 3.5 Goals28.1%

1-3 Goals25.9%

2-3 Goals22.5%

Exactly 3 Goals14.1%

Under 2.5 Goals14.0%

1-2 Goals11.8%

Exactly 2 Goals8.5%

Under 1.5 Goals5.5%

Under 0.5 Goals2.1%

Exactly 0 Goals0.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.2%

Away Team to Score70.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)68.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)31.4%

Home Clean Sheet28.2%

Home Win to Nil27.5%

Away Clean Sheet2.4%

Away Win to Nil1.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.2%

Home Over 1.587.3%

Home Over 2.570.7%

Home 3+ Goals70.7%

Away Over 0.570.3%

Away Exactly 135.3%

Away Over 1.535.1%

Away Exactly 028.2%

Away Exactly 222.1%

Home Exactly 216.6%

Away Over 2.513.0%

Away 3+ Goals13.0%

Home Exactly 18.9%

Home Exactly 02.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.5%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)90.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)90.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home90.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)82.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away82.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)80.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)68.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away68.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)64.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home64.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)51.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away51.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)46.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home46.7%

Home to win by 3+46.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)33.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away33.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)29.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home29.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)18.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away18.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.2%

Home to win by 218.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)16.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home16.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw15.4%

Home to win by 115.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw13.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw8.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)8.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)7.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home7.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw5.2%

Away to win by 15.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.0%

Away to win by 22.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.8%

Away to win by 3+0.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.573.0%

BTTS & Over 2.565.5%

Home & BTTS52.8%

Home & No BTTS27.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.520.5%

Draw & BTTS9.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.59.3%

Home & Under 2.57.3%

Away & Over 2.56.7%

Draw & Over 2.56.3%

Away & BTTS6.3%

Draw & Under 2.53.9%

BTTS & Under 2.53.2%

Away & No BTTS1.7%

Away & Under 2.51.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.589.4%

HT Over 1.565.7%

HT Home Win64.8%

HT/FT Home/Home61.0%

2nd Half More Goals49.6%

HT Both Teams Score35.1%

HT Under 1.534.3%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw23.2%

Equal Goals Each Half18.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.1%

HT Away Win12.0%

HT Under 0.510.6%

HT/FT Away/Home4.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Away/Away4.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.6%

HT/FT Home/Away0.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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