USA · Major League Soccer

Chicago Fire vs New York City FC

Kick-off 19:30 · Sat, Oct 10

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

42% confidence

Chicago Fire 42.3% Draw 21.5% New York City FC 36.2%

Over 2.5 - 80% BTTS - 79%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

79%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

79%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 7.2%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.2%

Exact-score model probability

Chicago Fire

W L L D D D

Form 1-3-2 Goals 11:13 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 2.17

New York City FC

W L D D D L

Form 1-3-2 Goals 6:6 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 1

Chicago Fire 0wins ·0 draws ·New York City FC 1wins

Chicago Fire 1-3 New York City FCJul 26, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Chicago Fire win42.3%

Draw21.5%

New York City FC win36.2%

Over 1.5 goals93.7%

Over 2.5 goals80.3%

Over 3.5 goals62.4%

Both teams to score78.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

90.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

90.5%

Home Team to Score

89.2%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)80.1%

Both Halves Over 0.577.6%

Goal in Both Halves77.6%

Home or Draw (1X)62.9%

Draw or Away (X2)56.8%

Draw No Bet - Home53.8%

Draw No Bet - Away46.2%

Home Win43.1%

Away Win37.0%

Draw19.8%

Exactly 1 Goal5.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.6%

Over 1.5 Goals92.8%

Over 2.5 Goals80.3%

Under 5.5 Goals73.6%

Over 3.5 Goals62.3%

4+ Goals62.3%

Under 4.5 Goals57.0%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-4 Goals49.7%

Over 4.5 Goals43.0%

Under 3.5 Goals37.7%

3-4 Goals37.3%

1-3 Goals36.2%

2-3 Goals30.4%

Over 5.5 Goals26.4%

Under 2.5 Goals19.7%

1-2 Goals18.3%

Exactly 3 Goals17.9%

Exactly 2 Goals12.5%

Under 1.5 Goals7.2%

Under 0.5 Goals1.4%

Exactly 0 Goals1.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score89.2%

Away Team to Score87.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)78.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)22.0%

Home Clean Sheet12.6%

Home Win to Nil11.2%

Away Clean Sheet10.7%

Away Win to Nil9.3%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.589.2%

Away Over 0.587.3%

Home Over 1.565.3%

Away Over 1.561.3%

Home Over 2.538.6%

Home 3+ Goals38.6%

Away Over 2.534.2%

Away 3+ Goals34.2%

Away Exactly 227.0%

Home Exactly 226.7%

Away Exactly 126.1%

Home Exactly 123.9%

Away Exactly 012.6%

Home Exactly 010.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.3%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)94.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away94.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)90.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home90.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)87.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away87.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)79.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home79.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)74.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away74.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)62.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home62.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)56.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away56.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)43.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)37.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)25.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home25.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)20.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away20.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.0%

Home to win by 118.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.7%

Away to win by 116.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw12.7%

Home to win by 212.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)12.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home12.4%

Home to win by 3+12.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw10.9%

Away to win by 210.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)9.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away9.4%

Away to win by 3+9.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)5.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home5.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.6%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.4%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.571.8%

Home & Over 2.536.7%

Home & BTTS31.8%

Away & Over 2.531.3%

Away & BTTS27.7%

Draw & BTTS18.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.513.4%

Draw & Over 2.512.2%

Home & No BTTS11.2%

Away & No BTTS9.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.5%

Draw & Under 2.57.6%

Home & Under 2.56.4%

BTTS & Under 2.56.2%

Away & Under 2.55.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.585.6%

HT Over 1.557.7%

2nd Half More Goals48.2%

HT Under 1.542.3%

HT Both Teams Score38.5%

HT Home Win36.3%

HT Away Win32.3%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw31.4%

HT/FT Home/Home27.2%

HT/FT Away/Away22.8%

Equal Goals Each Half19.5%

HT Under 0.514.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Away/Home4.0%

HT/FT Home/Away3.6%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners96.0%

Under 10.5 Corners92.3%

Under 9.5 Corners86.3%

Under 8.5 Corners77.1%

Home Most Corners47.2%

Away Most Corners37.1%

Home Over 4.5 Corners27.5%

Over 8.5 Corners22.9%

Away Over 4.5 Corners21.3%

Over 9.5 Corners13.7%

Over 10.5 Corners7.7%

Over 11.5 Corners4.0%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards78.5%

Over 2.5 Cards76.2%

Under 4.5 Cards62.9%

Over 3.5 Cards56.7%

Under 3.5 Cards43.3%

Over 4.5 Cards37.1%

Under 2.5 Cards23.8%

Over 5.5 Cards21.5%

Over 0.5 Red Cards16.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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