Mexico · Liga MX

Club America vs Toluca

Kick-off 04:10 · Sun, Nov 1

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

46% confidence

Club America 46.0% Draw 24.3% Toluca 29.7%

Over 2.5 - 68% BTTS - 69%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

87%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

76%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

69%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 9.2%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Club America: 9 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.2%

Exact-score model probability

Club America

L W W D D D

Form 2-3-1 Goals 12:9 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.5

Toluca

L D L L W W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 10:9 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Club America win46.0%

Draw24.3%

Toluca win29.7%

Over 1.5 goals87.4%

Over 2.5 goals67.6%

Over 3.5 goals46.0%

Both teams to score68.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

87.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

87.6%

Over 1.5 Goals

86.2%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)78.1%

Home or Draw (1X)69.1%

Both Halves Over 0.567.5%

Goal in Both Halves67.5%

Draw No Bet - Home60.4%

Draw or Away (X2)52.8%

Home Win47.1%

Draw No Bet - Away39.6%

Away Win30.9%

Draw21.9%

Exactly 1 Goal10.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.9%

Over 1.5 Goals86.2%

Under 5.5 Goals86.0%

Under 4.5 Goals72.8%

Over 2.5 Goals67.6%

2-4 Goals59.1%

Under 3.5 Goals54.0%

1-3 Goals50.9%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals46.0%

4+ Goals46.0%

3-4 Goals40.5%

2-3 Goals40.2%

Under 2.5 Goals32.4%

1-2 Goals29.3%

Over 4.5 Goals27.2%

Exactly 3 Goals21.6%

Exactly 2 Goals18.6%

Over 5.5 Goals14.0%

Under 1.5 Goals13.8%

Under 0.5 Goals3.1%

Exactly 0 Goals3.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score85.6%

Away Team to Score78.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)67.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)32.7%

Home Clean Sheet21.3%

Home Win to Nil18.3%

Away Clean Sheet14.4%

Away Win to Nil11.3%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.585.6%

Away Over 0.578.6%

Home Over 1.557.8%

Away Over 1.545.7%

Away Exactly 133.0%

Home Over 2.530.7%

Home 3+ Goals30.7%

Home Exactly 127.9%

Home Exactly 227.0%

Away Exactly 225.4%

Away Exactly 021.3%

Away Over 2.520.2%

Away 3+ Goals20.2%

Home Exactly 014.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)95.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away95.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)87.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away87.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)85.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home85.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)73.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away73.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)69.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home69.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)52.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away52.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)47.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)30.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)26.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home26.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw20.6%

Home to win by 120.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.4%

Away to win by 116.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)14.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away14.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.2%

Home to win by 214.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)12.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home12.3%

Home to win by 3+12.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw9.0%

Away to win by 29.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)5.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away5.5%

Away to win by 3+5.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)4.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home4.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.558.2%

Home & Over 2.535.4%

Home & BTTS28.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.523.2%

Away & Over 2.522.5%

Away & BTTS19.6%

Draw & BTTS18.8%

Home & No BTTS18.3%

Draw & Under 2.512.3%

Home & Under 2.511.7%

Away & No BTTS11.3%

Draw & Over 2.59.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.5%

BTTS & Under 2.59.2%

Away & Under 2.58.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.579.2%

HT Under 1.553.5%

HT Over 1.546.5%

2nd Half More Goals46.1%

HT Home Win37.4%

HT Draw35.5%

1st Half More Goals31.9%

HT/FT Home/Home29.5%

HT Both Teams Score29.2%

HT Away Win27.1%

Equal Goals Each Half22.0%

HT Under 0.520.8%

HT/FT Away/Away18.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw11.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Away/Home3.4%

HT/FT Home/Away2.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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