Mexico · Liga MX

Club Queretaro vs Leon

Kick-off 03:10 · Mon, Sep 21

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

50% confidence

Club Queretaro 49.7% Draw 23.1% Leon 27.2%

Over 2.5 - 71% BTTS - 70%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

77%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

70%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 8.9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.9%

Exact-score model probability

Club Queretaro

W W L D W W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 10:6 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1

Leon

W L D W W W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 9:5 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 0.83

📈 Probability Breakdown

Club Queretaro win49.7%

Draw23.1%

Leon win27.2%

Over 1.5 goals89.2%

Over 2.5 goals70.9%

Over 3.5 goals49.9%

Both teams to score70.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

88.1%

Home Team to Score

87.9%

Home Over 0.5

87.9%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)79.1%

Home or Draw (1X)71.7%

Both Halves Over 0.570.1%

Goal in Both Halves70.1%

Draw No Bet - Home64.3%

Home Win50.8%

Draw or Away (X2)49.2%

Draw No Bet - Away35.7%

Away Win28.2%

Draw20.9%

Exactly 1 Goal9.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.4%

Over 1.5 Goals88.1%

Under 5.5 Goals83.5%

Over 2.5 Goals70.9%

Under 4.5 Goals69.4%

2-4 Goals57.4%

Under 3.5 Goals50.1%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Over 3.5 Goals49.9%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

4+ Goals49.9%

1-3 Goals47.5%

3-4 Goals40.2%

2-3 Goals38.2%

Over 4.5 Goals30.6%

Under 2.5 Goals29.1%

1-2 Goals26.5%

Exactly 3 Goals21.0%

Exactly 2 Goals17.2%

Over 5.5 Goals16.5%

Under 1.5 Goals11.9%

Under 0.5 Goals2.6%

Exactly 0 Goals2.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score87.9%

Away Team to Score78.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)69.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)30.7%

Home Clean Sheet21.2%

Home Win to Nil18.7%

Away Clean Sheet12.0%

Away Win to Nil9.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.587.9%

Away Over 0.578.7%

Home Over 1.562.5%

Away Over 1.545.9%

Home Over 2.535.5%

Home 3+ Goals35.5%

Away Exactly 132.9%

Home Exactly 227.0%

Home Exactly 125.5%

Away Exactly 225.5%

Away Exactly 021.2%

Away Over 2.520.4%

Away 3+ Goals20.4%

Home Exactly 012.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)93.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away93.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)86.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home86.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)85.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away85.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)71.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home71.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)69.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away69.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)50.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)49.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away49.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)30.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home30.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)28.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw20.7%

Home to win by 120.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.2%

Home to win by 215.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw15.1%

Away to win by 115.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)14.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home14.9%

Home to win by 3+14.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)13.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away13.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw8.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw8.1%

Away to win by 28.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)6.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home6.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)5.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away5.0%

Away to win by 3+5.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.560.9%

Home & Over 2.539.7%

Home & BTTS32.1%

Away & Over 2.521.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.520.7%

Away & BTTS18.8%

Home & No BTTS18.7%

Draw & BTTS18.4%

Home & Under 2.511.1%

Draw & Under 2.510.9%

Draw & Over 2.510.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.0%

Away & No BTTS9.5%

BTTS & Under 2.58.4%

Away & Under 2.57.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.580.8%

HT Under 1.550.9%

HT Over 1.549.1%

2nd Half More Goals46.6%

HT Home Win40.1%

HT Draw34.2%

HT/FT Home/Home32.3%

1st Half More Goals32.0%

HT Both Teams Score30.9%

HT Away Win25.7%

Equal Goals Each Half21.4%

HT Under 0.519.2%

HT/FT Away/Away16.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Away/Home3.8%

HT/FT Home/Away2.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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