Mexico · Liga MX

Club Queretaro vs Toluca

Kick-off 04:10 · Sat, Aug 22

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

42% confidence

Club Queretaro 42.2% Draw 34.1% Toluca 23.7%

Over 2.5 - 31% BTTS - 39%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 2.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

87%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 16.4%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

16.4%

Exact-score model probability

Club Queretaro

D W W L

Form 2-1-1 Goals 5:4 Scored/game 1.25 Conceded/game 1

Toluca

D W L W L L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 6:6 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

Club Queretaro win42.2%

Draw34.1%

Toluca win23.7%

Over 1.5 goals59.7%

Over 2.5 goals31.0%

Over 3.5 goals13.4%

Both teams to score39.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

92.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

92.0%

Under 3.5 Goals

86.6%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)74.5%

Home or Away (12)69.3%

Draw No Bet - Home63.3%

Draw or Away (X2)56.1%

Home Win43.9%

Both Halves Over 0.538.4%

Goal in Both Halves38.4%

Draw No Bet - Away36.7%

Draw30.7%

Exactly 1 Goal27.7%

Away Win25.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals98.5%

Under 4.5 Goals95.2%

Under 3.5 Goals86.6%

Over 0.5 Goals85.8%

1-3 Goals72.4%

Under 2.5 Goals69.0%

Over 1.5 Goals58.0%

1-2 Goals54.8%

2-4 Goals53.2%

Total Goals Even51.0%

Total Goals Odd49.0%

2-3 Goals44.6%

Under 1.5 Goals42.0%

Over 2.5 Goals31.0%

Exactly 2 Goals27.0%

3-4 Goals26.2%

Exactly 3 Goals17.6%

Under 0.5 Goals14.2%

Exactly 0 Goals14.2%

Over 3.5 Goals13.4%

4+ Goals13.4%

Over 4.5 Goals4.8%

Over 5.5 Goals1.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score68.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)62.4%

Away Team to Score55.1%

Home Clean Sheet44.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)37.6%

Away Clean Sheet31.7%

Home Win to Nil30.7%

Away Win to Nil17.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.568.3%

Away Over 0.555.1%

Away Exactly 044.9%

Home Exactly 136.4%

Away Exactly 135.9%

Home Over 1.531.9%

Home Exactly 031.7%

Home Exactly 220.9%

Away Over 1.519.1%

Away Exactly 214.4%

Home Over 2.511.0%

Home 3+ Goals11.0%

Away Over 2.54.7%

Away 3+ Goals4.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)93.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away93.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)92.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home92.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)81.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away81.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)74.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home74.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)56.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away56.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)43.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)25.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw25.1%

Home to win by 125.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)18.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home18.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.5%

Away to win by 117.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw12.6%

Home to win by 212.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)8.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away8.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)6.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home6.1%

Home to win by 3+6.1%

Away to win by 26.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw4.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.9%

Away to win by 3+1.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.555.9%

Home & No BTTS30.7%

Draw & Under 2.527.3%

Home & Under 2.525.8%

BTTS & Over 2.524.5%

Home & Over 2.518.1%

Away & No BTTS17.4%

Draw & BTTS16.4%

Away & Under 2.515.9%

Home & BTTS13.2%

BTTS & Under 2.513.1%

Away & Over 2.59.5%

Away & BTTS8.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.56.4%

Draw & Over 2.53.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.578.1%

HT Over 0.558.4%

HT Draw49.7%

HT Under 0.541.6%

2nd Half More Goals39.6%

Equal Goals Each Half31.1%

HT Home Win30.7%

1st Half More Goals29.3%

HT/FT Home/Home25.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw22.1%

HT Over 1.521.9%

HT Away Win19.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.0%

HT/FT Away/Away13.8%

HT Both Teams Score12.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Away/Home1.6%

HT/FT Home/Away1.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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