Italy · Serie A

Como vs AS Roma

Kick-off 11:30 · Sun, Oct 11

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

36% confidence

Como 36.4% Draw 27.8% AS Roma 35.8%

Over 2.5 - 53% BTTS - 58%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

85%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

72%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 12.5%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to AS Roma: 13 points versus 14 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

12.5%

Exact-score model probability

Como

L W W W W D

Form 4-1-1 Goals 13:7 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1.17

AS Roma

D W D W W W

Form 4-2-0 Goals 15:4 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 0.67

Head to head · last 4

Como 2wins ·0 draws ·AS Roma 2wins

Como 2-1 AS RomaMar 15, 2026

Como 0-1 AS RomaDec 15, 2025

Como 1-2 AS RomaMar 2, 2025

Como 2-0 AS RomaDec 15, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Como win36.4%

Draw27.8%

AS Roma win35.8%

Over 1.5 goals69.0%

Over 2.5 goals53.1%

Over 3.5 goals22.0%

Both teams to score57.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 4.5 Goals

87.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

85.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

85.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)73.7%

Draw or Away (X2)65.7%

Home or Draw (1X)60.6%

Draw No Bet - Away53.5%

Both Halves Over 0.552.6%

Goal in Both Halves52.6%

Draw No Bet - Home46.5%

Away Win39.4%

Home Win34.3%

Draw26.3%

Exactly 1 Goal19.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals95.0%

Over 0.5 Goals92.6%

Under 4.5 Goals87.6%

Over 1.5 Goals73.4%

Under 3.5 Goals73.4%

1-3 Goals66.1%

2-4 Goals61.0%

Under 2.5 Goals51.6%

Total Goals Even50.3%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Over 2.5 Goals48.4%

2-3 Goals46.8%

1-2 Goals44.3%

3-4 Goals36.0%

Under 1.5 Goals26.6%

Over 3.5 Goals26.6%

4+ Goals26.6%

Exactly 2 Goals25.1%

Exactly 3 Goals21.8%

Over 4.5 Goals12.4%

Under 0.5 Goals7.4%

Exactly 0 Goals7.4%

Over 5.5 Goals5.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score74.3%

Home Team to Score71.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)53.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)47.0%

Away Clean Sheet28.7%

Home Clean Sheet25.7%

Away Win to Nil21.3%

Home Win to Nil18.3%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.574.3%

Home Over 0.571.3%

Away Over 1.539.4%

Home Exactly 135.8%

Home Over 1.535.5%

Away Exactly 134.9%

Home Exactly 028.7%

Away Exactly 025.7%

Away Exactly 223.7%

Home Exactly 222.4%

Away Over 2.515.7%

Away 3+ Goals15.7%

Home Over 2.513.1%

Home 3+ Goals13.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)95.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away95.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)93.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home93.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)85.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away85.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)81.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home81.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)65.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away65.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)60.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home60.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)39.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)34.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw21.3%

Away to win by 121.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.6%

Home to win by 119.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)18.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away18.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)14.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home14.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw11.6%

Away to win by 211.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw9.8%

Home to win by 29.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)6.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away6.6%

Away to win by 3+6.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)4.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home4.9%

Home to win by 3+4.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw4.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.540.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.539.1%

Away & Over 2.522.6%

Away & No BTTS21.3%

Draw & Under 2.519.9%

Home & Over 2.519.3%

Draw & BTTS18.9%

Home & No BTTS18.3%

Away & BTTS18.1%

Away & Under 2.516.8%

Home & BTTS16.0%

Home & Under 2.515.0%

BTTS & Under 2.512.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.57.9%

Draw & Over 2.56.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.569.1%

HT Under 1.567.2%

2nd Half More Goals43.0%

HT Draw42.5%

HT Over 1.532.8%

HT Under 0.530.9%

1st Half More Goals30.9%

HT Away Win30.3%

HT Home Win27.2%

Equal Goals Each Half26.1%

HT/FT Away/Away23.2%

HT/FT Home/Home19.8%

HT Both Teams Score19.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw16.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Home/Away2.2%

HT/FT Away/Home2.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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