Italy · Serie A

Como vs Parma

Kick-off 17:30 · Mon, Sep 14

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

69% confidence

Como 68.7% Draw 21.4% Parma 9.9%

Over 2.5 - 52% BTTS - 24%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

86%

No Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

76%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 21.5%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Como: 16 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.34 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

21.5%

Exact-score model probability

Como

W W W D W W

Form 5-1-0 Goals 16:5 Scored/game 2.67 Conceded/game 0.83

Parma

D L L W L L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 4:8 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 1.33

Head to head · last 4

Como 2wins ·2 draws ·Parma 0wins

Como 1-0 ParmaMay 17, 2026

Como 0-0 ParmaOct 25, 2025

Como 1-0 ParmaMay 3, 2025

Como 1-1 ParmaOct 19, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Como win68.7%

Draw21.4%

Parma win9.9%

Over 1.5 goals67.1%

Over 2.5 goals51.8%

Over 3.5 goals20.2%

Both teams to score24.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

90.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

90.3%

Over 0.5 Goals

88.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)94.8%

Draw No Bet - Home93.5%

Home or Away (12)81.0%

Home Win75.8%

Both Halves Over 0.543.1%

Goal in Both Halves43.1%

Exactly 1 Goal25.0%

Draw or Away (X2)24.2%

Draw19.0%

Draw No Bet - Away6.5%

Away Win5.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals97.7%

Under 4.5 Goals93.2%

Over 0.5 Goals88.4%

Under 3.5 Goals82.8%

1-3 Goals71.2%

Under 2.5 Goals63.5%

Over 1.5 Goals63.4%

2-4 Goals56.7%

1-2 Goals51.9%

Total Goals Even50.7%

Total Goals Odd49.3%

2-3 Goals46.2%

Under 1.5 Goals36.6%

Over 2.5 Goals36.5%

3-4 Goals29.7%

Exactly 2 Goals26.9%

Exactly 3 Goals19.3%

Over 3.5 Goals17.2%

4+ Goals17.2%

Under 0.5 Goals11.6%

Exactly 0 Goals11.6%

Over 4.5 Goals6.8%

Over 5.5 Goals2.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score84.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)78.1%

Home Clean Sheet74.1%

Home Win to Nil62.5%

Away Team to Score25.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)21.9%

Away Clean Sheet15.6%

Away Win to Nil4.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.584.3%

Away Exactly 074.1%

Home Over 1.555.3%

Home Exactly 129.0%

Home Over 2.528.4%

Home 3+ Goals28.4%

Home Exactly 226.9%

Away Over 0.525.9%

Away Exactly 122.2%

Home Exactly 015.6%

Away Over 1.53.7%

Away Exactly 23.3%

Away Over 2.50.4%

Away 3+ Goals0.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home99.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)96.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away96.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)94.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home94.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)90.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away90.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)76.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away76.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)75.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)52.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away52.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)47.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home47.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw28.1%

Home to win by 128.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)24.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away24.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw23.9%

Home to win by 223.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)23.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home23.8%

Home to win by 3+23.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw14.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)9.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home9.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw6.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)5.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw4.5%

Away to win by 14.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)3.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home3.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.6%

Away to win by 20.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.1%

Away to win by 3+0.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & No BTTS62.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.557.0%

Home & Under 2.541.4%

Home & Over 2.534.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.521.1%

Draw & Under 2.518.0%

BTTS & Over 2.515.4%

Home & BTTS13.3%

Draw & BTTS7.4%

BTTS & Under 2.56.5%

Away & No BTTS4.1%

Away & Under 2.54.0%

Away & Over 2.51.2%

Away & BTTS1.2%

Draw & Over 2.51.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.574.7%

HT Over 0.562.1%

HT Home Win51.9%

HT/FT Home/Home49.8%

HT Draw42.3%

2nd Half More Goals40.8%

HT Under 0.537.9%

1st Half More Goals29.9%

Equal Goals Each Half29.3%

HT Over 1.525.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home24.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw15.2%

HT Both Teams Score7.1%

HT Away Win5.8%

HT/FT Away/Away2.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.9%

HT/FT Away/Home1.3%

HT/FT Home/Away0.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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