Brazil · Serie A

Corinthians vs Atletico Paranaense

Kick-off 23:30 · Thu, Jul 30

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

57% confidence

Corinthians 57.2% Draw 23.4% Atletico Paranaense 19.4%

Over 2.5 - 63% BTTS - 61%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

AI verdict (fallback)

🤝 Bookmakers agree - bookies say 78%

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

84%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 9.8%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Atletico Paranaense: 10 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.8%

Exact-score model probability

Bookmaker implied chance

78%

Market agrees with this pick

Corinthians

D W W L W L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 9:8 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.33

Atletico Paranaense

W W W D L D

Form 3-2-1 Goals 7:4 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 0.67

🏥 Corinthians unavailable

M. Depay · Rest

F. Angileri · Yellow Cards

Matheus Bidu · Hamstring Injury

Yuri Alberto · Injury

🏥 Atletico Paranaense unavailable

A. Garcia Castillo · Injury

Felipinho · Muscle Injury

B. Zapelli · Ankle Injury

Mycael · Leg Injury

📈 Probability Breakdown

Corinthians win57.2%

Draw23.4%

Atletico Paranaense win19.4%

Over 1.5 goals84.4%

Over 2.5 goals62.5%

Over 3.5 goals40.3%

Both teams to score61.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Goals

89.2%

Home Team to Score

87.4%

Home Over 0.5

87.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)79.3%

Home or Away (12)79.0%

Draw No Bet - Home73.8%

Both Halves Over 0.563.6%

Goal in Both Halves63.6%

Home Win58.4%

Draw or Away (X2)41.6%

Draw No Bet - Away26.2%

Draw20.9%

Away Win20.7%

Exactly 1 Goal12.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.0%

Under 5.5 Goals89.2%

Over 1.5 Goals83.2%

Under 4.5 Goals77.6%

Over 2.5 Goals62.5%

2-4 Goals60.8%

Under 3.5 Goals59.7%

1-3 Goals55.7%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals42.9%

Over 3.5 Goals40.3%

4+ Goals40.3%

3-4 Goals40.1%

Under 2.5 Goals37.5%

1-2 Goals33.5%

Over 4.5 Goals22.4%

Exactly 3 Goals22.2%

Exactly 2 Goals20.7%

Under 1.5 Goals16.8%

Over 5.5 Goals10.8%

Under 0.5 Goals4.0%

Exactly 0 Goals4.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score87.4%

Away Team to Score68.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)59.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)40.1%

Home Clean Sheet31.5%

Home Win to Nil27.5%

Away Clean Sheet12.6%

Away Win to Nil8.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.587.4%

Away Over 0.568.5%

Home Over 1.561.2%

Away Exactly 136.4%

Home Over 2.534.2%

Home 3+ Goals34.2%

Away Over 1.532.1%

Away Exactly 031.5%

Home Exactly 227.0%

Home Exactly 126.1%

Away Exactly 221.0%

Home Exactly 012.6%

Away Over 2.511.1%

Away 3+ Goals11.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)92.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away92.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)92.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home92.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)82.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away82.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)79.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home79.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)64.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away64.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)58.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)41.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away41.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)35.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home35.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw22.9%

Home to win by 122.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)20.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)17.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home17.8%

Home to win by 3+17.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.7%

Home to win by 217.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw12.8%

Away to win by 112.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw10.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)7.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away7.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)7.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home7.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw5.5%

Away to win by 25.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.4%

Away to win by 3+2.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.550.4%

Home & Over 2.541.6%

Home & BTTS30.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.527.9%

Home & No BTTS27.5%

Draw & BTTS17.0%

Home & Under 2.516.7%

Draw & Under 2.513.5%

Away & Over 2.513.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.2%

Away & BTTS12.0%

BTTS & Under 2.59.5%

Away & No BTTS8.6%

Draw & Over 2.57.4%

Away & Under 2.57.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.576.6%

HT Under 1.557.4%

2nd Half More Goals45.3%

HT Home Win44.0%

HT Over 1.542.6%

HT/FT Home/Home37.7%

HT Draw36.2%

1st Half More Goals31.7%

HT Both Teams Score24.6%

HT Under 0.523.4%

Equal Goals Each Half23.0%

HT Away Win19.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.3%

HT/FT Away/Away11.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw11.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Away/Home3.4%

HT/FT Home/Away1.6%

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Corinthians

M. Depay Rest

F. Angileri Yellow Cards

Matheus Bidu Hamstring Injury

Yuri Alberto Injury

Alex Santana Thigh Injury

Vitinho Hip Injury

Hugo Knee Injury

Kayke Knee Injury

Atletico Paranaense

A. Garcia Castillo Injury

Felipinho Muscle Injury

B. Zapelli Ankle Injury

Mycael Leg Injury

Dantas Suspended

🔎 API-Football Model

An independent statistical model, shown for comparison.

Corinthians win45%

Draw45%

Atletico Paranaense win10%

AdviceDouble chance : Corinthians or draw

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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