Brazil · Serie A

Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc

Kick-off 23:30 · Sun, Sep 6

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

78% confidence

Corinthians 78.2% Draw 13.6% Chapecoense-sc 8.2%

Over 2.5 - 79% BTTS - 62%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

92%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

78%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 8.2%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.2%

Exact-score model probability

Corinthians

L L L W D D

Form 1-2-3 Goals 5:6 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1

Chapecoense-sc

L W D L D L

Form 1-2-3 Goals 8:14 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 2.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

Corinthians win78.2%

Draw13.6%

Chapecoense-sc win8.2%

Over 1.5 goals92.7%

Over 2.5 goals78.7%

Over 3.5 goals60.0%

Both teams to score62.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

91.6%

Home or Draw (1X)

90.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

90.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)90.7%

Draw No Bet - Home89.9%

Home or Away (12)87.2%

Home Win78.4%

Both Halves Over 0.576.3%

Goal in Both Halves76.3%

Draw or Away (X2)21.0%

Draw12.3%

Draw No Bet - Away10.1%

Away Win8.8%

Exactly 1 Goal6.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.0%

Over 1.5 Goals91.6%

Over 2.5 Goals78.2%

Under 5.5 Goals76.1%

Under 4.5 Goals59.8%

Over 3.5 Goals59.6%

4+ Goals59.6%

2-4 Goals51.4%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Under 3.5 Goals40.4%

Over 4.5 Goals40.2%

1-3 Goals38.3%

3-4 Goals38.1%

2-3 Goals31.9%

Over 5.5 Goals23.9%

Under 2.5 Goals21.8%

1-2 Goals19.7%

Exactly 3 Goals18.6%

Exactly 2 Goals13.3%

Under 1.5 Goals8.4%

Under 0.5 Goals2.0%

Exactly 0 Goals1.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.2%

Away Team to Score63.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)61.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)38.8%

Home Clean Sheet35.6%

Home Win to Nil34.1%

Away Clean Sheet4.3%

Away Win to Nil2.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.2%

Home Over 1.581.8%

Away Over 0.563.9%

Home Over 2.560.6%

Home 3+ Goals60.6%

Away Exactly 136.6%

Away Exactly 035.6%

Away Over 1.527.3%

Home Exactly 221.2%

Away Exactly 218.8%

Home Exactly 113.4%

Away Over 2.58.5%

Away 3+ Goals8.5%

Home Exactly 04.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)96.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home96.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)94.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)90.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home90.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)87.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away87.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)78.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)76.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away76.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)60.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home60.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)59.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away59.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)40.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home40.3%

Home to win by 3+40.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)39.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away39.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)23.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home23.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)21.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away21.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw20.0%

Home to win by 220.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.2%

Home to win by 118.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw11.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)11.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home11.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)8.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw6.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw5.9%

Away to win by 15.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)5.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home5.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.1%

Away to win by 22.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.7%

Away to win by 3+0.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.566.0%

BTTS & Over 2.556.2%

Home & BTTS44.4%

Home & No BTTS34.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.522.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.516.3%

Home & Under 2.512.4%

Draw & BTTS10.7%

Draw & Under 2.56.5%

Away & Over 2.56.4%

Away & BTTS6.0%

Draw & Over 2.55.8%

BTTS & Under 2.54.9%

Away & No BTTS2.7%

Away & Under 2.52.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.584.8%

HT Home Win61.1%

HT/FT Home/Home57.1%

HT Over 1.556.1%

2nd Half More Goals47.9%

HT Under 1.543.9%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Both Teams Score28.1%

HT Draw27.0%

Equal Goals Each Half19.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.8%

HT Under 0.515.2%

HT Away Win12.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.1%

HT/FT Away/Away4.8%

HT/FT Away/Home4.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Home/Away0.9%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners80.7%

Under 10.5 Corners71.1%

Under 9.5 Corners59.3%

Home Most Corners56.0%

Home Over 4.5 Corners55.2%

Over 8.5 Corners53.9%

Under 8.5 Corners46.1%

Over 9.5 Corners40.7%

Away Over 4.5 Corners37.1%

Away Most Corners31.2%

Over 10.5 Corners28.9%

Over 11.5 Corners19.3%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards78.5%

Under 5.5 Cards75.9%

Over 3.5 Cards59.8%

Under 4.5 Cards59.6%

Over 4.5 Cards40.4%

Under 3.5 Cards40.2%

Over 5.5 Cards24.1%

Under 2.5 Cards21.5%

Over 0.5 Red Cards16.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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