Brazil · Serie A

Corinthians vs Cruzeiro

Kick-off 23:30 · Sun, Aug 16

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

49% confidence

Corinthians 49.3% Draw 28.0% Cruzeiro 22.7%

Over 2.5 - 49% BTTS - 53%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 2.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 11.8%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Cruzeiro: 11 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.8%

Exact-score model probability

Corinthians

W D D W W L

Form 3-2-1 Goals 8:4 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 0.67

Cruzeiro

W W L W D W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 9:5 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 0.83

📈 Probability Breakdown

Corinthians win49.3%

Draw28.0%

Cruzeiro win22.7%

Over 1.5 goals75.5%

Over 2.5 goals49.1%

Over 3.5 goals27.2%

Both teams to score52.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

91.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

91.1%

Under 11.5 Corners

90.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)75.8%

Home or Away (12)75.1%

Draw No Bet - Home67.7%

Both Halves Over 0.553.2%

Goal in Both Halves53.2%

Home Win50.9%

Draw or Away (X2)49.1%

Draw No Bet - Away32.3%

Draw24.9%

Away Win24.2%

Exactly 1 Goal18.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals94.8%

Over 0.5 Goals92.8%

Under 4.5 Goals87.2%

Over 1.5 Goals73.9%

Under 3.5 Goals72.8%

1-3 Goals65.7%

2-4 Goals61.2%

Under 2.5 Goals50.9%

Total Goals Even50.3%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Over 2.5 Goals49.1%

2-3 Goals46.8%

1-2 Goals43.8%

3-4 Goals36.3%

Over 3.5 Goals27.2%

4+ Goals27.2%

Under 1.5 Goals26.1%

Exactly 2 Goals24.9%

Exactly 3 Goals21.9%

Over 4.5 Goals12.8%

Under 0.5 Goals7.2%

Exactly 0 Goals7.2%

Over 5.5 Goals5.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score80.0%

Away Team to Score64.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)51.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)48.6%

Home Clean Sheet35.8%

Home Win to Nil28.6%

Away Clean Sheet20.0%

Away Win to Nil12.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.580.0%

Away Over 0.564.2%

Home Over 1.547.8%

Away Exactly 136.8%

Away Exactly 035.8%

Home Exactly 132.2%

Away Over 1.527.5%

Home Exactly 225.9%

Home Over 2.521.9%

Home 3+ Goals21.9%

Home Exactly 020.0%

Away Exactly 218.9%

Away Over 2.58.6%

Away 3+ Goals8.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)91.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home91.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)88.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away88.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)75.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home75.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)73.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away73.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)50.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)49.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away49.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)26.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home26.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)24.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw24.1%

Home to win by 124.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.5%

Home to win by 215.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw15.4%

Away to win by 115.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)11.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home11.3%

Home to win by 3+11.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)8.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away8.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.4%

Away to win by 26.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)3.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home3.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.5%

Away to win by 3+2.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.539.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.539.1%

Home & Over 2.530.1%

Home & No BTTS28.6%

Home & BTTS22.3%

Home & Under 2.520.8%

Draw & Under 2.519.0%

Draw & BTTS17.7%

Away & Over 2.513.1%

Away & No BTTS12.9%

BTTS & Under 2.511.8%

Away & BTTS11.4%

Away & Under 2.511.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.5%

Draw & Over 2.55.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.569.5%

HT Under 1.566.8%

2nd Half More Goals43.2%

HT Draw41.6%

HT Home Win37.5%

HT Over 1.533.2%

HT/FT Home/Home31.2%

1st Half More Goals30.9%

HT Under 0.530.5%

Equal Goals Each Half25.9%

HT Away Win20.9%

HT Both Teams Score19.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw15.3%

HT/FT Away/Away13.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Away/Home2.6%

HT/FT Home/Away1.5%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners90.5%

Under 10.5 Corners84.0%

Under 9.5 Corners74.7%

Away Most Corners67.3%

Under 8.5 Corners62.7%

Away Over 4.5 Corners51.5%

Over 8.5 Corners37.3%

Over 9.5 Corners25.3%

Home Most Corners20.6%

Home Over 4.5 Corners18.5%

Over 10.5 Corners16.0%

Over 11.5 Corners9.5%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards89.5%

Over 3.5 Cards76.8%

Over 4.5 Cards60.2%

Under 5.5 Cards57.2%

Over 5.5 Cards42.8%

Under 4.5 Cards39.8%

Under 3.5 Cards23.2%

Over 0.5 Red Cards21.0%

Under 2.5 Cards10.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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