Brazil · Serie A

Corinthians vs Fluminense

Kick-off 20:00 · Sun, Sep 20

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

45% confidence

Corinthians 45.0% Draw 28.7% Fluminense 26.3%

Over 2.5 - 49% BTTS - 54%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

87%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 12.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Fluminense: 3 points versus 12 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

12.1%

Exact-score model probability

Corinthians

L L L L L W

Form 1-0-5 Goals 6:9 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.5

Fluminense

W D W W D D

Form 3-3-0 Goals 10:7 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

Corinthians win45.0%

Draw28.7%

Fluminense win26.3%

Over 1.5 goals75.7%

Over 2.5 goals49.2%

Over 3.5 goals27.3%

Both teams to score54.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

90.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

90.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

89.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)74.5%

Home or Draw (1X)72.1%

Draw No Bet - Home62.5%

Draw or Away (X2)53.4%

Both Halves Over 0.553.3%

Goal in Both Halves53.3%

Home Win46.5%

Draw No Bet - Away37.5%

Away Win27.9%

Draw25.5%

Exactly 1 Goal18.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals94.8%

Over 0.5 Goals92.9%

Under 4.5 Goals87.1%

Over 1.5 Goals74.1%

Under 3.5 Goals72.7%

1-3 Goals65.5%

2-4 Goals61.2%

Under 2.5 Goals50.8%

Total Goals Even50.3%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Over 2.5 Goals49.2%

2-3 Goals46.7%

1-2 Goals43.7%

3-4 Goals36.4%

Over 3.5 Goals27.3%

4+ Goals27.3%

Under 1.5 Goals25.9%

Exactly 2 Goals24.8%

Exactly 3 Goals21.9%

Over 4.5 Goals12.9%

Under 0.5 Goals7.1%

Exactly 0 Goals7.1%

Over 5.5 Goals5.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score78.2%

Away Team to Score67.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)52.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)47.3%

Home Clean Sheet32.6%

Home Win to Nil25.5%

Away Clean Sheet21.8%

Away Win to Nil14.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.578.2%

Away Over 0.567.4%

Home Over 1.545.0%

Away Exactly 136.5%

Home Exactly 133.2%

Away Exactly 032.6%

Away Over 1.530.8%

Home Exactly 225.3%

Home Exactly 021.8%

Away Exactly 220.5%

Home Over 2.519.7%

Home 3+ Goals19.7%

Away Over 2.510.4%

Away 3+ Goals10.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)90.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away90.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)89.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home89.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)76.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away76.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)72.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home72.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)53.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away53.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)46.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)27.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)23.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home23.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw23.1%

Home to win by 123.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.0%

Away to win by 117.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.1%

Home to win by 214.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)10.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away10.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)9.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home9.4%

Home to win by 3+9.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.6%

Away to win by 27.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw6.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.3%

Away to win by 3+3.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home3.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.540.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.538.6%

Home & Over 2.527.5%

Home & No BTTS25.5%

Home & BTTS21.0%

Draw & Under 2.519.3%

Home & Under 2.519.1%

Draw & BTTS18.4%

Away & Over 2.515.5%

Away & No BTTS14.7%

Away & BTTS13.2%

Away & Under 2.512.4%

BTTS & Under 2.512.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.7%

Draw & Over 2.56.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.569.6%

HT Under 1.566.6%

2nd Half More Goals43.2%

HT Draw41.9%

HT Home Win34.8%

HT Over 1.533.4%

1st Half More Goals30.9%

HT Under 0.530.4%

HT/FT Home/Home28.1%

Equal Goals Each Half25.9%

HT Away Win23.3%

HT Both Teams Score19.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.9%

HT/FT Away/Away15.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw15.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Away/Home2.5%

HT/FT Home/Away1.7%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners89.1%

Under 10.5 Corners82.0%

Under 9.5 Corners72.2%

Away Most Corners62.1%

Under 8.5 Corners59.8%

Away Over 4.5 Corners49.9%

Over 8.5 Corners40.2%

Over 9.5 Corners27.8%

Home Most Corners25.1%

Home Over 4.5 Corners23.6%

Over 10.5 Corners18.0%

Over 11.5 Corners10.9%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards82.6%

Under 5.5 Cards70.3%

Over 3.5 Cards65.8%

Under 4.5 Cards53.2%

Over 4.5 Cards46.8%

Under 3.5 Cards34.2%

Over 5.5 Cards29.7%

Over 0.5 Red Cards18.0%

Under 2.5 Cards17.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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