Brazil · Serie A

Corinthians vs Vitoria

Kick-off 00:00 · Tue, Oct 20

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

38% confidence

Corinthians 38.4% Draw 27.3% Vitoria 34.3%

Over 2.5 - 57% BTTS - 61%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

82%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

73%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

61%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

1X · Home or Draw covers 65.7% of the model's 1X2 probability, leaving 34.3% on the only losing outcome.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Vitoria: 0 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

1X · Home or Draw

65.7%

Two outcomes covered by the model

Loss probability

34.3%

Only the uncovered result loses

Corinthians

L L L L L L

Form 0-0-6 Goals 5:14 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 2.33

Vitoria

L W L D W L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 9:9 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Corinthians win38.4%

Draw27.3%

Vitoria win34.3%

Over 1.5 goals81.1%

Over 2.5 goals57.0%

Over 3.5 goals34.6%

Both teams to score61.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Goals

91.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

83.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

83.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)75.6%

Home or Draw (1X)64.2%

Draw or Away (X2)60.2%

Both Halves Over 0.559.4%

Goal in Both Halves59.4%

Draw No Bet - Home52.7%

Draw No Bet - Away47.3%

Home Win39.8%

Away Win35.8%

Draw24.4%

Exactly 1 Goal15.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals94.9%

Under 5.5 Goals91.9%

Under 4.5 Goals82.0%

Over 1.5 Goals79.7%

Under 3.5 Goals65.4%

2-4 Goals61.7%

1-3 Goals60.2%

Over 2.5 Goals57.0%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals45.0%

Under 2.5 Goals43.0%

3-4 Goals39.0%

1-2 Goals37.8%

Over 3.5 Goals34.6%

4+ Goals34.6%

Exactly 2 Goals22.6%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Under 1.5 Goals20.3%

Over 4.5 Goals18.0%

Over 5.5 Goals8.1%

Under 0.5 Goals5.1%

Exactly 0 Goals5.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score78.4%

Away Team to Score76.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)59.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)40.2%

Home Clean Sheet23.7%

Away Clean Sheet21.6%

Home Win to Nil18.6%

Away Win to Nil16.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.578.4%

Away Over 0.576.3%

Home Over 1.545.3%

Away Over 1.542.2%

Away Exactly 134.1%

Home Exactly 133.1%

Home Exactly 225.4%

Away Exactly 224.6%

Away Exactly 023.7%

Home Exactly 021.6%

Home Over 2.519.9%

Home 3+ Goals19.9%

Away Over 2.517.6%

Away 3+ Goals17.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)93.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home93.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)92.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away92.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)83.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home83.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)80.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away80.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)64.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home64.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)60.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away60.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)39.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)35.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw20.3%

Home to win by 120.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)19.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home19.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw19.1%

Away to win by 119.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)16.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away16.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw11.8%

Home to win by 211.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw10.5%

Away to win by 210.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)7.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home7.7%

Home to win by 3+7.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)6.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away6.2%

Away to win by 3+6.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw5.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw4.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.548.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.531.7%

Home & Over 2.526.0%

Away & Over 2.523.1%

Home & BTTS21.3%

Away & BTTS19.3%

Draw & BTTS19.3%

Home & No BTTS18.6%

Away & No BTTS16.5%

Draw & Under 2.516.4%

Home & Under 2.513.9%

Away & Under 2.512.7%

BTTS & Under 2.511.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.5%

Draw & Over 2.58.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.573.7%

HT Under 1.561.4%

2nd Half More Goals44.5%

HT Draw39.4%

HT Over 1.538.6%

HT Home Win31.6%

1st Half More Goals31.4%

HT Away Win29.1%

HT Under 0.526.3%

Equal Goals Each Half24.1%

HT Both Teams Score23.8%

HT/FT Home/Home23.8%

HT/FT Away/Away21.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw13.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away12.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Away/Home2.6%

HT/FT Home/Away2.4%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners82.7%

Under 10.5 Corners73.5%

Under 9.5 Corners62.0%

Over 8.5 Corners51.1%

Under 8.5 Corners48.9%

Home Over 4.5 Corners44.4%

Away Over 4.5 Corners44.4%

Home Most Corners43.2%

Away Most Corners43.2%

Over 9.5 Corners38.0%

Over 10.5 Corners26.5%

Over 11.5 Corners17.3%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards81.2%

Under 5.5 Cards72.4%

Over 3.5 Cards63.6%

Under 4.5 Cards55.6%

Over 4.5 Cards44.4%

Under 3.5 Cards36.4%

Over 5.5 Cards27.6%

Under 2.5 Cards18.8%

Over 0.5 Red Cards17.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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