Brazil · Serie A

Coritiba vs Botafogo

Kick-off 20:00 · Mon, Oct 12

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

68% confidence

Coritiba 67.9% Draw 19.1% Botafogo 13.0%

Over 2.5 - 68% BTTS - 60%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

88%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

87%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

68%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 9.5%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Coritiba: 7 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.5%

Exact-score model probability

Coritiba

L L D L W W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 9:17 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 2.83

Botafogo

D L W D D L

Form 1-3-2 Goals 6:10 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

Coritiba win67.9%

Draw19.1%

Botafogo win13.0%

Over 1.5 goals87.6%

Over 2.5 goals68.3%

Over 3.5 goals46.8%

Both teams to score60.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Team to Score

91.5%

Home Over 0.5

91.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

86.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)85.9%

Draw No Bet - Home83.1%

Home or Away (12)82.7%

Home Win68.8%

Both Halves Over 0.568.1%

Goal in Both Halves68.1%

Draw or Away (X2)31.1%

Draw17.1%

Draw No Bet - Away16.9%

Away Win14.0%

Exactly 1 Goal10.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.9%

Over 1.5 Goals86.6%

Under 5.5 Goals85.6%

Under 4.5 Goals72.2%

Over 2.5 Goals68.2%

2-4 Goals58.8%

Under 3.5 Goals53.3%

1-3 Goals50.2%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals46.7%

4+ Goals46.7%

3-4 Goals40.4%

2-3 Goals39.8%

Under 2.5 Goals31.8%

1-2 Goals28.7%

Over 4.5 Goals27.8%

Exactly 3 Goals21.5%

Exactly 2 Goals18.3%

Over 5.5 Goals14.4%

Under 1.5 Goals13.4%

Under 0.5 Goals3.1%

Exactly 0 Goals2.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score91.5%

Away Team to Score64.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)59.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)40.8%

Home Clean Sheet35.3%

Home Win to Nil32.4%

Away Clean Sheet8.3%

Away Win to Nil5.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.591.5%

Home Over 1.570.8%

Away Over 0.564.6%

Home Over 2.545.1%

Home 3+ Goals45.1%

Away Exactly 136.7%

Away Exactly 035.3%

Away Over 1.527.9%

Home Exactly 225.7%

Home Exactly 120.7%

Away Exactly 219.1%

Away Over 2.58.8%

Away 3+ Goals8.8%

Home Exactly 08.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)94.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away94.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)86.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away86.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)85.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home85.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)72.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away72.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)68.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)53.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away53.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)46.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home46.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)31.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away31.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)27.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home27.0%

Home to win by 3+27.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.9%

Home to win by 121.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.9%

Home to win by 219.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)14.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw13.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)13.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home13.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw9.2%

Away to win by 19.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw7.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)5.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home5.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)4.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away4.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.5%

Away to win by 23.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.3%

Away to win by 3+1.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.552.4%

BTTS & Over 2.551.6%

Home & BTTS36.4%

Home & No BTTS32.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.524.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.516.7%

Home & Under 2.516.4%

Draw & BTTS14.2%

Draw & Under 2.510.6%

Away & Over 2.59.3%

Away & BTTS8.6%

BTTS & Under 2.57.6%

Draw & Over 2.56.6%

Away & No BTTS5.4%

Away & Under 2.54.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.579.5%

HT Under 1.553.0%

HT Home Win51.9%

HT Over 1.547.0%

HT/FT Home/Home46.7%

2nd Half More Goals46.2%

HT Draw32.7%

1st Half More Goals31.9%

HT Both Teams Score25.2%

Equal Goals Each Half21.9%

HT Under 0.520.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home18.4%

HT Away Win15.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.2%

HT/FT Away/Away7.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.0%

HT/FT Away/Home3.7%

HT/FT Home/Away1.2%

Corners (12)

Over 8.5 Corners71.0%

Home Over 4.5 Corners68.2%

Under 11.5 Corners65.0%

Over 9.5 Corners59.1%

Home Most Corners57.7%

Under 10.5 Corners53.3%

Away Over 4.5 Corners49.3%

Over 10.5 Corners46.7%

Under 9.5 Corners40.9%

Over 11.5 Corners35.0%

Away Most Corners30.5%

Under 8.5 Corners29.0%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards84.1%

Over 3.5 Cards68.0%

Under 5.5 Cards68.0%

Under 4.5 Cards50.7%

Over 4.5 Cards49.3%

Under 3.5 Cards32.0%

Over 5.5 Cards32.0%

Over 0.5 Red Cards18.5%

Under 2.5 Cards15.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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