Brazil · Serie A

Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc

Kick-off 00:30 · Sun, Aug 9

📊 Our Prediction

Over 2.5 Goals

88% confidence

Coritiba 65.0% Draw 20.0% Chapecoense-sc 15.0%

Over 2.5 - 88% BTTS - 82%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

High scoring

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score (GG)

BTTS rate high

85%

Home or Draw (1X)

Coritiba stronger

80%

🤖 AI Match Analysis

Coritiba has a significant form gap over Chapecoense-sc, with better attacking threat and defensive strength. Key players like Vitor Roque can make a difference. Chapecoense-sc has several injuries, including Y. Bolasie and Victor Caetano. The pi-ratings also favor Coritiba. 5 Goals is the strongest pick due to the high expected goals and scoring rates of both teams.

💡

Top Tip

Over 2

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

Over 2.5 Goals is rated at 88.2% after combining both teams' recent goal output and defensive records.

High scoring

Recent form leans to Coritiba: 8 points versus 2 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Over 2.5 Goals

Over 2.5 Goals probability

88.2%

Chance of 3+ total goals

Coritiba high-scoring games

66.7%

Recent matches with 3+ goals

Chapecoense-sc high-scoring games

66.7%

Recent matches with 3+ goals

Coritiba

L D L W W D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 9:8 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.33

Chapecoense-sc

D L L L L D

Form 0-2-4 Goals 6:14 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 2.33

🏥 Coritiba unavailable

Thiago Santos · Injury

Fabinho · Inactive

🏥 Chapecoense-sc unavailable

Y. Bolasie · Injury

Victor Caetano · Calf Injury

Rafael Carvalheira · Knee Injury

Joao Paulo · Health problems

📈 Probability Breakdown

Coritiba win65.0%

Draw20.0%

Chapecoense-sc win15.0%

Over 1.5 goals96.8%

Over 2.5 goals88.2%

Over 3.5 goals74.8%

Both teams to score82.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

91.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

91.9%

HT Over 0.5

89.9%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.584.5%

Goal in Both Halves84.5%

Home or Away (12)83.9%

Home or Draw (1X)79.0%

Draw No Bet - Home75.7%

Home Win63.5%

Draw or Away (X2)35.8%

Draw No Bet - Away24.3%

Away Win20.3%

Draw15.5%

Exactly 1 Goal3.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.8%

Over 1.5 Goals95.7%

Over 2.5 Goals87.8%

Over 3.5 Goals74.3%

4+ Goals74.3%

Under 5.5 Goals60.4%

Over 4.5 Goals57.2%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Total Goals Even49.7%

Under 4.5 Goals42.8%

Over 5.5 Goals39.6%

2-4 Goals38.5%

3-4 Goals30.6%

Under 3.5 Goals25.7%

1-3 Goals24.5%

2-3 Goals21.4%

Exactly 3 Goals13.5%

Under 2.5 Goals12.2%

1-2 Goals11.0%

Exactly 2 Goals7.9%

Under 1.5 Goals4.3%

Under 0.5 Goals1.2%

Exactly 0 Goals0.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.4%

Away Team to Score84.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)80.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)19.1%

Home Clean Sheet15.1%

Home Win to Nil14.5%

Away Clean Sheet4.0%

Away Win to Nil3.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.4%

Away Over 0.584.3%

Home Over 1.582.5%

Home Over 2.561.8%

Home 3+ Goals61.8%

Away Over 1.555.9%

Away Over 2.529.1%

Away 3+ Goals29.1%

Away Exactly 128.4%

Away Exactly 226.8%

Home Exactly 220.7%

Away Exactly 015.1%

Home Exactly 112.9%

Home Exactly 04.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.3%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)91.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away91.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)89.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home89.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)83.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away83.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)79.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home79.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)70.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away70.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)63.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)53.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away53.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)45.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home45.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)35.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away35.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)28.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home28.6%

Home to win by 3+28.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)20.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.0%

Home to win by 118.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.9%

Home to win by 216.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)15.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home15.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw12.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw10.6%

Away to win by 110.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)9.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away9.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw8.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)7.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home7.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw5.8%

Away to win by 25.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw4.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.0%

Away to win by 3+4.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)3.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home3.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.577.2%

Home & Over 2.558.5%

Home & BTTS49.1%

Away & Over 2.518.1%

Away & BTTS17.0%

Draw & BTTS14.9%

Home & No BTTS14.5%

Draw & Over 2.511.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.57.9%

Home & Under 2.55.1%

Draw & Under 2.54.3%

BTTS & Under 2.53.7%

Away & No BTTS3.4%

Away & Under 2.52.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.589.9%

HT Over 1.566.8%

HT Home Win51.2%

2nd Half More Goals49.8%

HT/FT Home/Home44.1%

HT Both Teams Score43.8%

HT Under 1.533.2%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw26.8%

HT Away Win22.0%

Equal Goals Each Half17.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.6%

HT/FT Away/Away12.0%

HT Under 0.510.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.9%

HT/FT Away/Home5.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Home/Away2.4%

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Chapecoense-sc

Y. Bolasie Injury

Victor Caetano Calf Injury

Rafael Carvalheira Knee Injury

Joao Paulo Health problems

Mauricio Garcez Thigh Injury

Robert Conceicao Knee Injury

Coritiba

Thiago Santos Injury

Fabinho Inactive

🔎 API-Football Model

An independent statistical model, shown for comparison.

Coritiba win45%

Draw45%

Chapecoense-sc win10%

AdviceDouble chance : Coritiba or draw

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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