Brazil · Serie A

Coritiba vs Corinthians

Kick-off 23:30 · Sun, Aug 23

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

48% confidence

Coritiba 48.4% Draw 21.1% Corinthians 30.5%

Over 2.5 - 80% BTTS - 78%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

79%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

78%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 7.4%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Corinthians: 8 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.4%

Exact-score model probability

Coritiba

D W L D L W

Form 2-2-2 Goals 7:8 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.33

Corinthians

L W D D W W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 8:3 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 0.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Coritiba win48.4%

Draw21.1%

Corinthians win30.5%

Over 1.5 goals93.6%

Over 2.5 goals80.3%

Over 3.5 goals62.3%

Both teams to score78.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Team to Score

90.8%

Home Over 0.5

90.8%

Under 11.5 Corners

90.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)80.5%

Both Halves Over 0.577.6%

Goal in Both Halves77.6%

Home or Draw (1X)68.6%

Draw No Bet - Home61.1%

Draw or Away (X2)50.7%

Home Win49.2%

Draw No Bet - Away38.9%

Away Win31.3%

Draw19.4%

Exactly 1 Goal5.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.5%

Over 1.5 Goals92.7%

Over 2.5 Goals80.2%

Under 5.5 Goals73.7%

Over 3.5 Goals62.3%

4+ Goals62.3%

Under 4.5 Goals57.1%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-4 Goals49.8%

Over 4.5 Goals42.9%

Under 3.5 Goals37.7%

3-4 Goals37.3%

1-3 Goals36.3%

2-3 Goals30.5%

Over 5.5 Goals26.3%

Under 2.5 Goals19.8%

1-2 Goals18.3%

Exactly 3 Goals18.0%

Exactly 2 Goals12.5%

Under 1.5 Goals7.3%

Under 0.5 Goals1.5%

Exactly 0 Goals1.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score90.8%

Away Team to Score85.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)77.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)22.7%

Home Clean Sheet14.8%

Home Win to Nil13.4%

Away Clean Sheet9.1%

Away Win to Nil7.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.590.8%

Away Over 0.585.1%

Home Over 1.568.9%

Away Over 1.556.8%

Home Over 2.542.8%

Home 3+ Goals42.8%

Away Over 2.529.9%

Away 3+ Goals29.9%

Away Exactly 128.3%

Away Exactly 227.0%

Home Exactly 226.1%

Home Exactly 121.8%

Away Exactly 014.8%

Home Exactly 09.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.1%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)92.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)92.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home92.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away92.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)84.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away84.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)83.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home83.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)69.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away69.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)68.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home68.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)50.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away50.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)49.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)31.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)30.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home30.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.0%

Home to win by 119.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)16.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away16.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)15.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home15.8%

Home to win by 3+15.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw15.2%

Away to win by 115.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.4%

Home to win by 214.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw9.2%

Away to win by 29.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw8.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)7.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)7.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away7.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home7.0%

Away to win by 3+7.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw4.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.9%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.6%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.571.1%

Home & Over 2.542.1%

Home & BTTS35.7%

Away & Over 2.526.3%

Away & BTTS23.5%

Draw & BTTS18.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.513.5%

Home & No BTTS13.4%

Draw & Over 2.511.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.1%

Away & No BTTS7.8%

Draw & Under 2.57.5%

Home & Under 2.57.1%

BTTS & Under 2.56.2%

Away & Under 2.55.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.585.6%

HT Over 1.557.7%

2nd Half More Goals48.2%

HT Under 1.542.3%

HT Home Win40.2%

HT Both Teams Score38.0%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT/FT Home/Home31.6%

HT Draw31.2%

HT Away Win28.6%

Equal Goals Each Half19.5%

HT/FT Away/Away18.9%

HT Under 0.514.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Away/Home4.3%

HT/FT Home/Away3.1%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners90.5%

Under 10.5 Corners84.0%

Under 9.5 Corners74.7%

Under 8.5 Corners62.7%

Home Most Corners53.4%

Home Over 4.5 Corners42.0%

Over 8.5 Corners37.3%

Away Most Corners32.5%

Away Over 4.5 Corners27.5%

Over 9.5 Corners25.3%

Over 10.5 Corners16.0%

Over 11.5 Corners9.5%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards84.1%

Over 2.5 Cards70.2%

Under 4.5 Cards70.2%

Under 3.5 Cards51.0%

Over 3.5 Cards49.0%

Under 2.5 Cards29.8%

Over 4.5 Cards29.8%

Over 5.5 Cards15.9%

Over 0.5 Red Cards14.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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