Brazil · Serie A

Coritiba vs Gremio

Kick-off 23:30 · Mon, Oct 26

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

68% confidence

Coritiba 67.5% Draw 17.3% Gremio 15.2%

Over 2.5 - 80% BTTS - 71%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

85%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

71%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 8.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Coritiba: 5 points versus 3 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.1%

Exact-score model probability

Coritiba

D L L D L W

Form 1-2-3 Goals 8:17 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 2.83

Gremio

L D D D L L

Form 0-3-3 Goals 7:11 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.83

📈 Probability Breakdown

Coritiba win67.5%

Draw17.3%

Gremio win15.2%

Over 1.5 goals93.3%

Over 2.5 goals79.7%

Over 3.5 goals61.4%

Both teams to score71.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

85.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

84.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

84.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)83.9%

Home or Away (12)83.9%

Draw No Bet - Home81.1%

Both Halves Over 0.577.1%

Goal in Both Halves77.1%

Home Win68.1%

Draw or Away (X2)31.6%

Draw No Bet - Away18.9%

Draw15.8%

Away Win15.8%

Exactly 1 Goal6.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.3%

Over 1.5 Goals92.3%

Over 2.5 Goals79.5%

Under 5.5 Goals74.6%

Over 3.5 Goals61.3%

4+ Goals61.3%

Under 4.5 Goals58.1%

2-4 Goals50.4%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Over 4.5 Goals41.9%

Under 3.5 Goals38.7%

3-4 Goals37.6%

1-3 Goals37.0%

2-3 Goals31.0%

Over 5.5 Goals25.4%

Under 2.5 Goals20.5%

1-2 Goals18.8%

Exactly 3 Goals18.2%

Exactly 2 Goals12.8%

Under 1.5 Goals7.7%

Under 0.5 Goals1.7%

Exactly 0 Goals1.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.1%

Away Team to Score74.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)70.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)29.6%

Home Clean Sheet25.1%

Home Win to Nil23.7%

Away Clean Sheet5.6%

Away Win to Nil4.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.1%

Home Over 1.577.9%

Away Over 0.574.6%

Home Over 2.554.6%

Home 3+ Goals54.6%

Away Over 1.540.0%

Away Exactly 134.6%

Away Exactly 025.1%

Away Exactly 223.9%

Home Exactly 223.3%

Home Exactly 116.2%

Away Over 2.516.1%

Away 3+ Goals16.1%

Home Exactly 05.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)93.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home93.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)92.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away92.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)84.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away84.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)83.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home83.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)70.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away70.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)68.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)51.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away51.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)48.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home48.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)31.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away31.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)29.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home29.7%

Home to win by 3+29.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.7%

Home to win by 119.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.7%

Home to win by 218.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)15.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)15.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home15.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw14.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw9.4%

Away to win by 19.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw8.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)7.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home7.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)6.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away6.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw4.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.3%

Away to win by 24.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.1%

Away to win by 3+2.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.564.8%

Home & Over 2.558.1%

Home & BTTS44.4%

Home & No BTTS23.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.514.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.514.6%

Draw & BTTS14.4%

Away & Over 2.512.6%

Away & BTTS11.6%

Home & Under 2.59.9%

Draw & Over 2.58.8%

Draw & Under 2.57.0%

BTTS & Under 2.55.6%

Away & No BTTS4.2%

Away & Under 2.53.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.585.3%

HT Over 1.557.1%

HT Home Win53.0%

2nd Half More Goals48.1%

HT/FT Home/Home47.1%

HT Under 1.542.9%

HT Both Teams Score33.6%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Draw29.1%

Equal Goals Each Half19.6%

HT Away Win17.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.6%

HT Under 0.514.7%

HT/FT Away/Away9.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.2%

HT/FT Away/Home4.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.2%

HT/FT Home/Away1.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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