Brazil · Serie A

Coritiba vs Mirassol

Kick-off 15:00 · Sun, Sep 6

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

79% confidence

Coritiba 78.8% Draw 12.0% Mirassol 9.2%

Over 2.5 - 88% BTTS - 73%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

88%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

79%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 7.3%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Coritiba: 11 points versus 5 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.3%

Exact-score model probability

Coritiba

W W D W L D

Form 3-2-1 Goals 8:6 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1

Mirassol

L D D L L W

Form 1-2-3 Goals 6:13 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 2.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

Coritiba win78.8%

Draw12.0%

Mirassol win9.2%

Over 1.5 goals96.6%

Over 2.5 goals88.0%

Over 3.5 goals74.2%

Both teams to score73.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Cards

92.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

91.7%

HT Over 0.5

89.8%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home89.2%

Home or Draw (1X)89.1%

Home or Away (12)87.6%

Both Halves Over 0.584.3%

Goal in Both Halves84.3%

Home Win78.1%

Draw or Away (X2)20.5%

Draw11.0%

Draw No Bet - Away10.8%

Away Win9.5%

Exactly 1 Goal3.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.0%

Over 1.5 Goals94.8%

Over 2.5 Goals86.8%

Over 3.5 Goals73.2%

4+ Goals73.2%

Under 5.5 Goals61.6%

Over 4.5 Goals56.0%

Total Goals Odd49.3%

Total Goals Even49.3%

Under 4.5 Goals44.0%

2-4 Goals38.9%

Over 5.5 Goals38.4%

3-4 Goals30.8%

Under 3.5 Goals26.8%

1-3 Goals24.8%

2-3 Goals21.6%

Exactly 3 Goals13.6%

Under 2.5 Goals13.2%

1-2 Goals11.2%

Exactly 2 Goals8.0%

Under 1.5 Goals5.2%

Under 0.5 Goals2.0%

Exactly 0 Goals0.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.2%

Away Team to Score73.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)71.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)28.2%

Home Clean Sheet25.0%

Home Win to Nil24.4%

Away Clean Sheet2.5%

Away Win to Nil1.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.2%

Home Over 1.587.1%

Away Over 0.573.6%

Home Over 2.570.2%

Home 3+ Goals70.2%

Away Over 1.539.3%

Away Exactly 134.3%

Away Exactly 025.0%

Away Exactly 223.5%

Home Exactly 216.9%

Away Over 2.515.8%

Away 3+ Goals15.8%

Home Exactly 19.1%

Home Exactly 02.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)91.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)89.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home89.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)83.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away83.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)78.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)71.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away71.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)62.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home62.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)54.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away54.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)44.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home44.1%

Home to win by 3+44.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)36.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away36.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)27.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home27.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)20.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away20.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.1%

Home to win by 218.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw15.9%

Home to win by 115.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)15.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home15.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw12.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)9.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw8.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)6.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home6.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw5.9%

Away to win by 15.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)3.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away3.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.5%

Away to win by 22.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.1%

Away to win by 3+1.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.571.5%

BTTS & Over 2.568.6%

Home & BTTS53.7%

Home & No BTTS24.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.518.2%

Draw & BTTS10.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.58.6%

Away & Over 2.58.1%

Away & BTTS7.7%

Draw & Over 2.57.2%

Home & Under 2.56.6%

Draw & Under 2.53.8%

BTTS & Under 2.53.2%

Away & No BTTS1.8%

Away & Under 2.51.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.589.8%

HT Over 1.566.6%

HT Home Win62.9%

HT/FT Home/Home58.6%

2nd Half More Goals49.8%

HT Both Teams Score37.4%

HT Under 1.533.4%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw23.7%

Equal Goals Each Half17.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.9%

HT Away Win13.4%

HT Under 0.510.2%

HT/FT Away/Away5.3%

HT/FT Away/Home4.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.0%

HT/FT Home/Away1.1%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners82.3%

Under 10.5 Corners73.0%

Under 9.5 Corners61.5%

Home Most Corners57.1%

Home Over 4.5 Corners54.5%

Over 8.5 Corners51.7%

Under 8.5 Corners48.3%

Over 9.5 Corners38.5%

Away Over 4.5 Corners34.7%

Away Most Corners30.0%

Over 10.5 Corners27.0%

Over 11.5 Corners17.7%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards92.0%

Under 4.5 Cards82.2%

Under 3.5 Cards65.7%

Over 2.5 Cards56.7%

Under 2.5 Cards43.3%

Over 3.5 Cards34.3%

Over 4.5 Cards17.8%

Over 0.5 Red Cards11.8%

Over 5.5 Cards8.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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