Spain · Copa del Rey

Covadonga vs Valladolid

Kick-off 20:00 · Thu, Oct 29

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

85% confidence

Covadonga 85.2% Draw 9.6% Valladolid 5.2%

Over 2.5 - 86% BTTS - 63%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

86%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

85%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

1X · Home or Draw covers 94.8% of the model's 1X2 probability, leaving 5.2% on the only losing outcome.

Double chance from Poisson

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

1X · Home or Draw

94.8%

Two outcomes covered by the model

Loss probability

5.2%

Only the uncovered result loses

Covadonga

No recent results stored yet

Valladolid

L L L L L L

Form 0-0-6 Goals 3:14 Scored/game 0.5 Conceded/game 2.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

Covadonga win85.2%

Draw9.6%

Valladolid win5.2%

Over 1.5 goals95.6%

Over 2.5 goals85.6%

Over 3.5 goals70.2%

Both teams to score62.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Away (12)

89.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

89.1%

HT Over 0.5

88.5%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home93.8%

Home or Draw (1X)92.9%

Home or Away (12)89.8%

Home Win84.2%

Both Halves Over 0.582.2%

Goal in Both Halves82.2%

Draw or Away (X2)14.2%

Draw8.6%

Draw No Bet - Away6.2%

Away Win5.5%

Exactly 1 Goal3.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.6%

Over 1.5 Goals93.7%

Over 2.5 Goals84.2%

Over 3.5 Goals69.1%

4+ Goals69.1%

Under 5.5 Goals66.6%

Over 4.5 Goals50.9%

Total Goals Even49.3%

Total Goals Odd49.2%

Under 4.5 Goals49.1%

2-4 Goals42.8%

Over 5.5 Goals33.4%

3-4 Goals33.3%

Under 3.5 Goals30.9%

1-3 Goals28.5%

2-3 Goals24.6%

Under 2.5 Goals15.8%

Exactly 3 Goals15.1%

1-2 Goals13.4%

Exactly 2 Goals9.4%

Under 1.5 Goals6.3%

Under 0.5 Goals2.4%

Exactly 0 Goals0.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.2%

Away Team to Score62.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)61.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)38.8%

Home Clean Sheet35.8%

Home Win to Nil35.0%

Away Clean Sheet2.2%

Away Win to Nil1.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.2%

Home Over 1.587.6%

Home Over 2.571.4%

Home 3+ Goals71.4%

Away Over 0.562.6%

Away Exactly 136.2%

Away Exactly 035.8%

Away Over 1.526.4%

Away Exactly 218.3%

Home Exactly 216.2%

Home Exactly 18.5%

Away Over 2.58.1%

Away 3+ Goals8.1%

Home Exactly 02.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.4%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)96.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home96.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)92.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home92.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)89.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)84.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)79.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away79.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)69.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home69.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)64.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away64.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)51.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home51.8%

Home to win by 3+51.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)46.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away46.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)33.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home33.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)28.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away28.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)19.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home19.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.1%

Home to win by 218.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw18.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw14.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.4%

Home to win by 114.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)14.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away14.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw9.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)9.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home9.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)5.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw3.8%

Away to win by 13.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.3%

Away to win by 21.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.4%

Away to win by 3+0.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.575.3%

BTTS & Over 2.558.1%

Home & BTTS49.3%

Home & No BTTS35.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.526.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.511.0%

Home & Under 2.59.0%

Draw & BTTS7.8%

Draw & Over 2.54.7%

Away & Over 2.54.3%

Away & BTTS4.1%

Draw & Under 2.54.0%

BTTS & Under 2.53.1%

Away & No BTTS1.4%

Away & Under 2.51.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.588.5%

HT Home Win68.3%

HT/FT Home/Home65.4%

HT Over 1.563.6%

2nd Half More Goals49.2%

HT Under 1.536.4%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Both Teams Score29.9%

HT Draw22.3%

Equal Goals Each Half18.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.4%

HT Under 0.511.5%

HT Away Win9.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.0%

HT/FT Away/Home4.0%

HT/FT Away/Away3.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.9%

HT/FT Home/Away0.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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