England · League Cup

Coventry vs Aston Villa

Kick-off 20:00 · Wed, Sep 16

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

62% confidence

Coventry 22.4% Draw 15.8% Aston Villa 61.8%

Over 2.5 - 93% BTTS - 87%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

87%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

84%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-3 at 5.7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Aston Villa: 6 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.7%

Exact-score model probability

Coventry

L L L W L W

Form 2-0-4 Goals 8:12 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 2

Aston Villa

L W D L L W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 6:10 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

Coventry win22.4%

Draw15.8%

Aston Villa win61.8%

Over 1.5 goals98.2%

Over 2.5 goals92.6%

Over 3.5 goals82.4%

Both teams to score87.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 2.5 Goals

91.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

91.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home

91.0%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.588.6%

Goal in Both Halves88.6%

Home or Away (12)84.0%

Draw or Away (X2)76.5%

Draw No Bet - Away73.3%

Away Win61.5%

Home or Draw (1X)37.4%

Draw No Bet - Home26.7%

Home Win22.5%

Draw14.9%

Exactly 1 Goal1.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.6%

Over 1.5 Goals96.8%

Over 2.5 Goals91.6%

Over 3.5 Goals81.5%

4+ Goals81.5%

Over 4.5 Goals67.1%

Over 5.5 Goals50.4%

Under 5.5 Goals49.6%

Total Goals Odd49.5%

Total Goals Even49.5%

Under 4.5 Goals32.9%

2-4 Goals29.7%

3-4 Goals24.5%

Under 3.5 Goals18.5%

1-3 Goals17.1%

2-3 Goals15.3%

Exactly 3 Goals10.0%

Under 2.5 Goals8.4%

1-2 Goals7.0%

Exactly 2 Goals5.2%

Under 1.5 Goals3.2%

Under 0.5 Goals1.4%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score96.0%

Home Team to Score88.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)85.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)14.3%

Away Clean Sheet10.5%

Away Win to Nil10.2%

Home Clean Sheet3.0%

Home Win to Nil2.6%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.596.0%

Home Over 0.588.4%

Away Over 1.585.6%

Away Over 2.567.2%

Away 3+ Goals67.2%

Home Over 1.564.8%

Home Over 2.538.3%

Home 3+ Goals38.3%

Home Exactly 226.4%

Home Exactly 123.6%

Away Exactly 218.3%

Home Exactly 010.5%

Away Exactly 110.4%

Away Exactly 03.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)95.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)93.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away93.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)91.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home91.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)87.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away87.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)82.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home82.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)76.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away76.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)70.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home70.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)61.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)54.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home54.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)44.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away44.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)37.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home37.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)28.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away28.7%

Away to win by 3+28.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)22.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.0%

Away to win by 117.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)16.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away16.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw15.9%

Away to win by 215.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw12.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)11.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home11.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw10.8%

Home to win by 110.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw8.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)7.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away7.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw6.4%

Home to win by 26.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)5.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home5.2%

Home to win by 3+5.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw4.7%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)3.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away3.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.583.2%

Away & Over 2.558.5%

Away & BTTS51.3%

Home & Over 2.521.0%

Home & BTTS19.8%

Draw & BTTS14.6%

Draw & Over 2.512.1%

Away & No BTTS10.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.54.9%

Away & Under 2.53.1%

Draw & Under 2.52.8%

Home & No BTTS2.6%

BTTS & Under 2.52.5%

Home & Under 2.51.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.592.5%

HT Over 1.573.1%

2nd Half More Goals51.0%

HT Away Win50.8%

HT Both Teams Score50.5%

HT/FT Away/Away43.1%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.526.9%

HT Draw25.2%

HT Home Win24.1%

Equal Goals Each Half16.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away13.5%

HT/FT Home/Home13.5%

HT Under 0.57.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home6.1%

HT/FT Home/Away5.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Away/Home2.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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