England · Premier League

Coventry vs Newcastle

Kick-off 20:00 · Mon, Oct 12

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

42% confidence

Coventry 28.2% Draw 29.9% Newcastle 42.0%

Over 2.5 - 81% BTTS - 79%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

81%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

79%

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

72%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 7.2%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Newcastle: 6 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.66 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.2%

Exact-score model probability

Coventry

W L L L W L

Form 2-0-4 Goals 5:12 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 2

Newcastle

W L W D W W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 11:9 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Coventry win28.2%

Draw29.9%

Newcastle win42.0%

Over 1.5 goals71.6%

Over 2.5 goals80.5%

Over 3.5 goals23.1%

Both teams to score79.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

89.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

89.6%

Away Team to Score

88.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)80.1%

Both Halves Over 0.577.8%

Goal in Both Halves77.8%

Draw or Away (X2)61.1%

Home or Draw (1X)58.7%

Draw No Bet - Away51.5%

Draw No Bet - Home48.5%

Away Win41.2%

Home Win38.8%

Draw19.8%

Exactly 1 Goal5.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.6%

Over 1.5 Goals92.9%

Over 2.5 Goals80.5%

Under 5.5 Goals73.4%

Over 3.5 Goals62.6%

4+ Goals62.6%

Under 4.5 Goals56.7%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-4 Goals49.5%

Over 4.5 Goals43.3%

Under 3.5 Goals37.4%

3-4 Goals37.2%

1-3 Goals36.0%

2-3 Goals30.2%

Over 5.5 Goals26.6%

Under 2.5 Goals19.5%

1-2 Goals18.1%

Exactly 3 Goals17.9%

Exactly 2 Goals12.4%

Under 1.5 Goals7.1%

Under 0.5 Goals1.4%

Exactly 0 Goals1.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score88.8%

Home Team to Score88.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)78.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)21.8%

Away Clean Sheet11.9%

Home Clean Sheet11.1%

Away Win to Nil10.6%

Home Win to Nil9.8%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.588.8%

Home Over 0.588.0%

Away Over 1.564.3%

Home Over 1.562.7%

Away Over 2.537.5%

Away 3+ Goals37.5%

Home Over 2.535.8%

Home 3+ Goals35.8%

Home Exactly 226.9%

Away Exactly 226.8%

Home Exactly 125.3%

Away Exactly 124.4%

Home Exactly 011.9%

Away Exactly 011.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away95.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)89.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away89.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)88.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home88.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)78.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away78.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)76.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home76.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)61.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away61.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)58.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home58.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)41.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)38.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)23.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away23.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)21.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home21.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.6%

Away to win by 117.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.1%

Home to win by 117.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw12.2%

Away to win by 212.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)11.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away11.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw11.5%

Home to win by 211.5%

Away to win by 3+11.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)10.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home10.3%

Home to win by 3+10.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw6.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw6.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)4.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away4.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)4.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home4.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.4%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.572.0%

Away & Over 2.535.1%

Home & Over 2.533.0%

Away & BTTS30.7%

Home & BTTS29.0%

Draw & BTTS18.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.513.3%

Draw & Over 2.512.3%

Away & No BTTS10.6%

Home & No BTTS9.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.5%

Draw & Under 2.57.5%

BTTS & Under 2.56.2%

Away & Under 2.56.1%

Home & Under 2.55.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.585.7%

HT Over 1.557.9%

2nd Half More Goals48.3%

HT Under 1.542.1%

HT Both Teams Score38.7%

HT Away Win35.1%

HT Home Win33.5%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw31.4%

HT/FT Away/Away25.8%

HT/FT Home/Home24.1%

Equal Goals Each Half19.5%

HT Under 0.514.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away11.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home11.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.6%

HT/FT Home/Away3.9%

HT/FT Away/Home3.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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