Mexico · Liga MX

Cruz Azul vs Atlas

● LIVE 45' · 0:2

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

49% confidence

Cruz Azul 48.5% Draw 22.3% Atlas 29.2%

Over 2.5 - 75% BTTS - 74%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

78%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 9.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Cruz Azul: 10 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.1%

Exact-score model probability

Cruz Azul

L L W W W D

Form 3-1-2 Goals 10:9 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.5

Atlas

W L W W L L

Form 3-0-3 Goals 8:9 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 2

Cruz Azul 2wins ·0 draws ·Atlas 0wins

Cruz Azul 1-0 AtlasMay 10, 2026

Cruz Azul 3-2 AtlasMay 3, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Cruz Azul win48.5%

Draw22.3%

Atlas win29.2%

Over 1.5 goals91.2%

Over 2.5 goals74.9%

Over 3.5 goals54.9%

Both teams to score73.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

88.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

88.3%

Home Team to Score

88.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)79.2%

Home or Draw (1X)73.8%

Both Halves Over 0.569.1%

Goal in Both Halves69.1%

Draw No Bet - Home67.0%

Home Win53.0%

Draw or Away (X2)46.9%

Draw No Bet - Away33.0%

Away Win26.1%

Draw20.8%

Exactly 1 Goal9.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.2%

Over 1.5 Goals87.3%

Under 5.5 Goals84.5%

Under 4.5 Goals70.8%

Over 2.5 Goals69.6%

2-4 Goals58.1%

Under 3.5 Goals51.7%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

1-3 Goals48.9%

Over 3.5 Goals48.3%

4+ Goals48.3%

3-4 Goals40.4%

2-3 Goals39.0%

Under 2.5 Goals30.4%

Over 4.5 Goals29.2%

1-2 Goals27.6%

Exactly 3 Goals21.3%

Exactly 2 Goals17.7%

Over 5.5 Goals15.5%

Under 1.5 Goals12.7%

Under 0.5 Goals2.8%

Exactly 0 Goals2.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score88.1%

Away Team to Score76.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)67.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)32.3%

Home Clean Sheet23.2%

Home Win to Nil20.5%

Away Clean Sheet11.8%

Away Win to Nil9.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.588.1%

Away Over 0.576.7%

Home Over 1.562.9%

Away Over 1.542.9%

Home Over 2.535.9%

Home 3+ Goals35.9%

Away Exactly 133.9%

Home Exactly 226.9%

Home Exactly 125.2%

Away Exactly 224.7%

Away Exactly 023.2%

Away Over 2.518.1%

Away 3+ Goals18.1%

Home Exactly 011.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)93.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away93.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)88.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home88.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)84.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away84.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)73.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home73.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)68.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away68.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)53.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)46.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away46.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)31.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home31.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)26.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.2%

Home to win by 121.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)15.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home15.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.9%

Home to win by 215.9%

Home to win by 3+15.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw14.5%

Away to win by 114.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)11.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away11.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw9.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.4%

Away to win by 27.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)6.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home6.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.2%

Away to win by 3+4.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.559.1%

Home & Over 2.540.9%

Home & BTTS32.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.521.8%

Home & No BTTS20.5%

Away & Over 2.519.2%

Draw & BTTS18.1%

Away & BTTS17.1%

Home & Under 2.512.1%

Draw & Under 2.511.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.5%

Draw & Over 2.59.5%

Away & No BTTS9.1%

BTTS & Under 2.58.6%

Away & Under 2.56.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.580.2%

HT Under 1.551.9%

HT Over 1.548.1%

2nd Half More Goals46.4%

HT Home Win41.4%

HT Draw34.5%

HT/FT Home/Home34.0%

1st Half More Goals31.9%

HT Both Teams Score29.7%

HT Away Win24.2%

Equal Goals Each Half21.6%

HT Under 0.519.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.4%

HT/FT Away/Away15.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Away/Home3.8%

HT/FT Home/Away2.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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