Mexico · Liga MX

Cruz Azul vs FC Juarez

Kick-off 04:10 · Sun, Oct 18

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

89% confidence

Cruz Azul 88.6% Draw 7.2% FC Juarez 4.2%

Over 2.5 - 92% BTTS - 68%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

92%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

89%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-1 at 6.9%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Cruz Azul: 10 points versus 3 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.66 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.9%

Exact-score model probability

Cruz Azul

D L W W W L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 11:10 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.67

FC Juarez

L W L L L L

Form 1-0-5 Goals 5:12 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 2

📈 Probability Breakdown

Cruz Azul win88.6%

Draw7.2%

FC Juarez win4.2%

Over 1.5 goals97.8%

Over 2.5 goals91.7%

Over 3.5 goals80.7%

Both teams to score67.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Most Corners

92.0%

Home or Draw (1X)

91.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

91.7%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home95.3%

Home or Draw (1X)91.7%

Home or Away (12)89.5%

Both Halves Over 0.588.0%

Goal in Both Halves88.0%

Home Win85.3%

Draw or Away (X2)10.7%

Draw6.4%

Draw No Bet - Away4.7%

Away Win4.2%

Exactly 1 Goal2.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.6%

Over 1.5 Goals93.6%

Over 2.5 Goals88.0%

Over 3.5 Goals77.5%

4+ Goals77.5%

Over 4.5 Goals62.5%

Under 5.5 Goals54.3%

Total Goals Even48.1%

Total Goals Odd47.9%

Over 5.5 Goals45.7%

Under 4.5 Goals37.5%

2-4 Goals31.1%

3-4 Goals25.5%

Under 3.5 Goals22.5%

1-3 Goals18.2%

2-3 Goals16.2%

Under 2.5 Goals12.0%

Exactly 3 Goals10.6%

1-2 Goals7.6%

Under 1.5 Goals6.4%

Exactly 2 Goals5.6%

Under 0.5 Goals4.4%

Exactly 0 Goals0.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.9%

Away Team to Score65.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)64.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)35.1%

Home Clean Sheet30.3%

Home Win to Nil30.0%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil0.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.9%

Home Over 1.589.9%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 0.565.6%

Away Exactly 134.9%

Away Over 1.530.7%

Away Exactly 030.3%

Away Exactly 220.1%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Away Over 2.510.6%

Away 3+ Goals10.6%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)94.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home94.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)91.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home91.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)85.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)82.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)74.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home74.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)70.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away70.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)58.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home58.7%

Home to win by 3+58.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)54.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away54.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)41.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home41.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)37.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away37.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)25.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home25.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)21.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away21.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw15.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.4%

Home to win by 215.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)13.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home13.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw12.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw11.2%

Home to win by 111.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)10.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away10.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)4.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw2.9%

Away to win by 12.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.0%

Away to win by 21.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.4%

Away to win by 3+0.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.580.2%

BTTS & Over 2.563.1%

Home & BTTS55.3%

Home & No BTTS30.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.525.0%

Draw & BTTS6.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.56.1%

Home & Under 2.55.1%

Draw & Over 2.54.3%

Away & Over 2.53.6%

Away & BTTS3.5%

Draw & Under 2.52.2%

BTTS & Under 2.51.8%

Away & No BTTS0.8%

Away & Under 2.50.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.592.1%

HT Home Win73.1%

HT Over 1.572.1%

HT/FT Home/Home70.6%

2nd Half More Goals50.7%

HT Both Teams Score35.1%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.527.9%

HT Draw18.5%

Equal Goals Each Half16.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.4%

HT Away Win8.4%

HT Under 0.57.9%

HT/FT Away/Home4.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw2.7%

HT/FT Away/Away2.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.4%

HT/FT Home/Away0.5%

Corners (12)

Home Most Corners92.0%

Home Over 4.5 Corners82.7%

Under 11.5 Corners77.0%

Under 10.5 Corners66.6%

Over 8.5 Corners58.7%

Under 9.5 Corners54.4%

Over 9.5 Corners45.6%

Under 8.5 Corners41.3%

Over 10.5 Corners33.4%

Over 11.5 Corners23.0%

Away Over 4.5 Corners8.8%

Away Most Corners3.9%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards94.6%

Under 4.5 Cards86.8%

Under 3.5 Cards72.1%

Under 2.5 Cards50.2%

Over 2.5 Cards49.8%

Over 3.5 Cards27.9%

Over 4.5 Cards13.2%

Over 0.5 Red Cards10.7%

Over 5.5 Cards5.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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