Mexico · Liga MX

Cruz Azul vs Leon

● LIVE 45' · 0:0

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

59% confidence

Cruz Azul 59.4% Draw 16.8% Leon 23.8%

Over 2.5 - 90% BTTS - 85%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

85%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

83%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-2 at 6%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Cruz Azul: 13 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.34 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Cruz Azul

W W D L W W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 16:8 Scored/game 2.67 Conceded/game 1.33

Leon

W L D W D W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 10:8 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

Cruz Azul win59.4%

Draw16.8%

Leon win23.8%

Over 1.5 goals97.5%

Over 2.5 goals90.4%

Over 3.5 goals78.4%

Both teams to score85.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

91.2%

Over 2.5 Goals

89.8%

Away Team to Score

87.7%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.586.5%

Goal in Both Halves86.5%

Home or Away (12)83.4%

Home or Draw (1X)75.3%

Draw No Bet - Home71.2%

Home Win59.4%

Draw or Away (X2)40.0%

Draw No Bet - Away28.8%

Away Win24.1%

Draw15.9%

Exactly 1 Goal2.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.9%

Over 1.5 Goals96.4%

Over 2.5 Goals89.8%

Over 3.5 Goals77.9%

4+ Goals77.9%

Over 4.5 Goals61.9%

Under 5.5 Goals55.4%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Total Goals Even49.7%

Over 5.5 Goals44.6%

Under 4.5 Goals38.1%

2-4 Goals34.5%

3-4 Goals27.9%

Under 3.5 Goals22.1%

1-3 Goals21.0%

2-3 Goals18.5%

Exactly 3 Goals11.9%

Under 2.5 Goals10.2%

1-2 Goals9.1%

Exactly 2 Goals6.6%

Under 1.5 Goals3.6%

Under 0.5 Goals1.1%

Exactly 0 Goals0.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.5%

Away Team to Score87.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)84.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)15.7%

Home Clean Sheet11.6%

Home Win to Nil11.2%

Away Clean Sheet3.9%

Away Win to Nil3.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.5%

Away Over 0.587.7%

Home Over 1.582.8%

Away Over 1.562.7%

Home Over 2.562.4%

Home 3+ Goals62.4%

Away Over 2.536.0%

Away 3+ Goals36.0%

Away Exactly 226.8%

Away Exactly 125.0%

Home Exactly 220.5%

Home Exactly 112.6%

Away Exactly 011.6%

Home Exactly 03.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.1%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)93.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home93.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)92.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away92.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)86.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home86.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)85.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away85.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)75.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home75.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)73.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away73.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)59.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)57.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away57.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)41.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home41.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)40.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away40.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)25.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home25.9%

Home to win by 3+25.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)24.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.6%

Home to win by 117.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.9%

Home to win by 215.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)14.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home14.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)12.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away12.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw11.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw11.6%

Away to win by 111.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw7.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.9%

Away to win by 26.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)6.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home6.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)5.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away5.5%

Away to win by 3+5.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw4.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.581.1%

Home & Over 2.555.5%

Home & BTTS48.2%

Away & Over 2.522.0%

Away & BTTS20.6%

Draw & BTTS15.5%

Draw & Over 2.512.3%

Home & No BTTS11.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.56.4%

Home & Under 2.53.9%

Draw & Under 2.53.6%

Away & No BTTS3.4%

BTTS & Under 2.53.2%

Away & Under 2.52.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.591.2%

HT Over 1.569.7%

2nd Half More Goals50.4%

HT Home Win48.6%

HT Both Teams Score47.5%

HT/FT Home/Home40.8%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.530.3%

HT Draw26.4%

HT Away Win24.9%

Equal Goals Each Half17.2%

HT/FT Away/Away14.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.6%

HT Under 0.58.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.1%

HT/FT Away/Home5.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Home/Away3.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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