Mexico · Liga MX

Cruz Azul vs Santos Laguna

Kick-off 00:00 · Mon, Sep 7

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

76% confidence

Cruz Azul 76.3% Draw 12.2% Santos Laguna 11.5%

Over 2.5 - 92% BTTS - 80%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

89%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

80%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 6.2%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Cruz Azul: 9 points versus 1 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.2%

Exact-score model probability

Cruz Azul

W L L L W W

Form 3-0-3 Goals 11:11 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.83

Santos Laguna

D L L L L L

Form 0-1-5 Goals 4:11 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 1.83

📈 Probability Breakdown

Cruz Azul win76.3%

Draw12.2%

Santos Laguna win11.5%

Over 1.5 goals97.8%

Over 2.5 goals91.6%

Over 3.5 goals80.5%

Both teams to score80.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

91.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

91.3%

Over 2.5 Goals

89.8%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.587.7%

Goal in Both Halves87.7%

Home or Away (12)86.7%

Draw No Bet - Home86.6%

Home or Draw (1X)86.5%

Home Win75.1%

Draw or Away (X2)23.0%

Draw No Bet - Away13.4%

Away Win11.6%

Draw11.4%

Exactly 1 Goal2.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.7%

Over 1.5 Goals95.6%

Over 2.5 Goals89.8%

Over 3.5 Goals79.0%

4+ Goals79.0%

Over 4.5 Goals63.8%

Under 5.5 Goals53.1%

Total Goals Even49.1%

Total Goals Odd49.0%

Over 5.5 Goals46.9%

Under 4.5 Goals36.2%

2-4 Goals31.8%

3-4 Goals26.0%

Under 3.5 Goals21.0%

1-3 Goals18.7%

2-3 Goals16.6%

Exactly 3 Goals10.8%

Under 2.5 Goals10.2%

1-2 Goals7.9%

Exactly 2 Goals5.8%

Under 1.5 Goals4.4%

Under 0.5 Goals2.3%

Exactly 0 Goals0.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.1%

Away Team to Score79.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)78.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)21.8%

Home Clean Sheet18.3%

Home Win to Nil17.9%

Away Clean Sheet2.0%

Away Win to Nil1.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.1%

Home Over 1.588.3%

Away Over 0.579.8%

Home Over 2.573.1%

Home 3+ Goals73.1%

Away Over 1.549.1%

Away Exactly 130.7%

Away Exactly 225.8%

Away Over 2.523.3%

Away 3+ Goals23.3%

Away Exactly 018.3%

Home Exactly 215.3%

Home Exactly 17.8%

Home Exactly 02.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.1%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)93.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home93.1%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)91.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)86.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home86.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)83.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away83.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)75.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)71.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away71.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)59.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home59.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)55.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away55.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)42.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home42.4%

Home to win by 3+42.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)38.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away38.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)26.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home26.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)23.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away23.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.2%

Home to win by 217.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw15.5%

Home to win by 115.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)14.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home14.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw12.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)11.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw7.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)6.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw6.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home6.7%

Away to win by 16.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)5.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away5.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.2%

Away to win by 23.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.8%

Away to win by 3+1.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.575.8%

Home & Over 2.570.8%

Home & BTTS57.2%

Home & No BTTS17.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.514.1%

Draw & BTTS11.0%

Away & Over 2.510.5%

Away & BTTS10.0%

Draw & Over 2.58.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.55.8%

Home & Under 2.54.3%

Draw & Under 2.52.8%

BTTS & Under 2.52.4%

Away & No BTTS1.6%

Away & Under 2.51.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.591.9%

HT Over 1.571.7%

HT Home Win61.4%

HT/FT Home/Home56.4%

2nd Half More Goals50.7%

HT Both Teams Score43.9%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.528.3%

HT Draw22.9%

Equal Goals Each Half16.9%

HT Away Win15.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.0%

HT Under 0.58.1%

HT/FT Away/Away6.7%

HT/FT Away/Home5.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.4%

HT/FT Home/Away1.5%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners69.7%

Away Over 4.5 Corners66.8%

Over 8.5 Corners66.7%

Away Most Corners60.3%

Under 10.5 Corners58.3%

Over 9.5 Corners54.2%

Under 9.5 Corners45.8%

Home Over 4.5 Corners43.6%

Over 10.5 Corners41.7%

Under 8.5 Corners33.3%

Over 11.5 Corners30.3%

Home Most Corners28.0%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards93.2%

Under 4.5 Cards84.2%

Under 3.5 Cards68.5%

Over 2.5 Cards53.8%

Under 2.5 Cards46.2%

Over 3.5 Cards31.5%

Over 4.5 Cards15.8%

Over 0.5 Red Cards11.3%

Over 5.5 Cards6.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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