Mexico · Liga MX

Cruz Azul vs Toluca

Kick-off 23:50 · Sat, Sep 26

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

53% confidence

Cruz Azul 26.0% Draw 21.4% Toluca 52.6%

Over 2.5 - 76% BTTS - 74%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

79%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 8.3%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Toluca: 9 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.3%

Exact-score model probability

Cruz Azul

L W W W L L

Form 3-0-3 Goals 9:9 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.5

Toluca

L W W W W D

Form 4-1-1 Goals 14:6 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

Cruz Azul win26.0%

Draw21.4%

Toluca win52.6%

Over 1.5 goals91.9%

Over 2.5 goals76.4%

Over 3.5 goals56.9%

Both teams to score74.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

92.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home

92.0%

Over 1.5 Goals

90.9%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)80.3%

Both Halves Over 0.574.4%

Goal in Both Halves74.4%

Draw or Away (X2)73.1%

Draw No Bet - Away66.6%

Away Win53.5%

Home or Draw (1X)46.4%

Draw No Bet - Home33.4%

Home Win26.9%

Draw19.6%

Exactly 1 Goal7.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.1%

Over 1.5 Goals90.9%

Under 5.5 Goals78.3%

Over 2.5 Goals76.3%

Under 4.5 Goals62.7%

Over 3.5 Goals56.9%

4+ Goals56.9%

2-4 Goals53.5%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals43.1%

1-3 Goals41.2%

3-4 Goals39.0%

Over 4.5 Goals37.3%

2-3 Goals34.0%

Under 2.5 Goals23.7%

1-2 Goals21.8%

Over 5.5 Goals21.7%

Exactly 3 Goals19.5%

Exactly 2 Goals14.5%

Under 1.5 Goals9.1%

Under 0.5 Goals1.9%

Exactly 0 Goals1.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score90.5%

Home Team to Score80.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)73.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)26.8%

Away Clean Sheet19.1%

Away Win to Nil17.3%

Home Clean Sheet9.4%

Home Win to Nil7.6%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.590.5%

Home Over 0.580.8%

Away Over 1.568.2%

Home Over 1.549.3%

Away Over 2.541.9%

Away 3+ Goals41.9%

Home Exactly 131.6%

Away Exactly 226.3%

Home Exactly 226.2%

Home Over 2.523.1%

Home 3+ Goals23.1%

Away Exactly 122.3%

Home Exactly 019.1%

Away Exactly 09.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.5%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.3%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)94.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away94.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)92.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home92.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)87.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away87.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)82.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home82.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)73.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away73.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)66.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home66.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)53.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)46.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home46.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)33.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away33.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)26.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw20.1%

Away to win by 120.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)17.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away17.6%

Away to win by 3+17.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw15.7%

Away to win by 215.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.1%

Home to win by 114.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)12.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home12.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw9.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)7.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away7.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw7.7%

Home to win by 27.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)5.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home5.0%

Home to win by 3+5.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw4.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)3.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away3.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw2.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.566.2%

Away & Over 2.544.2%

Away & BTTS36.2%

Home & Over 2.521.4%

Home & BTTS19.2%

Draw & BTTS17.8%

Away & No BTTS17.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.516.5%

Draw & Over 2.510.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.2%

Away & Under 2.59.3%

Draw & Under 2.58.8%

Home & No BTTS7.6%

BTTS & Under 2.57.0%

Home & Under 2.55.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.583.6%

HT Over 1.553.9%

2nd Half More Goals47.5%

HT Under 1.546.1%

HT Away Win42.5%

HT/FT Away/Away34.7%

HT Both Teams Score34.4%

HT Draw32.2%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Home Win25.3%

Equal Goals Each Half20.3%

HT Under 0.516.4%

HT/FT Home/Home15.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home8.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Away4.2%

HT/FT Away/Home2.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions