Brazil · Serie A

Cruzeiro vs Atletico Paranaense

Kick-off 20:00 · Sun, Sep 6

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

37% confidence

Cruzeiro 37.1% Draw 26.1% Atletico Paranaense 36.8%

Over 2.5 - 62% BTTS - 65%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

84%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

74%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

65%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 10.4%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.4%

Exact-score model probability

Cruzeiro

L W W W W L

Form 4-0-2 Goals 9:7 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.17

Atletico Paranaense

D W D W D W

Form 3-3-0 Goals 11:6 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

Cruzeiro win37.1%

Draw26.1%

Atletico Paranaense win36.8%

Over 1.5 goals84.4%

Over 2.5 goals62.3%

Over 3.5 goals40.1%

Both teams to score65.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Goals

89.3%

Over 1.5 Goals

83.1%

Under 5.5 Cards

82.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)76.6%

Both Halves Over 0.563.4%

Goal in Both Halves63.4%

Home or Draw (1X)61.8%

Draw or Away (X2)61.6%

Draw No Bet - Home50.2%

Draw No Bet - Away49.8%

Home Win38.4%

Away Win38.2%

Draw23.4%

Exactly 1 Goal12.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.0%

Under 5.5 Goals89.3%

Over 1.5 Goals83.1%

Under 4.5 Goals77.8%

Over 2.5 Goals62.3%

2-4 Goals60.9%

Under 3.5 Goals59.9%

1-3 Goals55.9%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals43.0%

Over 3.5 Goals40.1%

4+ Goals40.1%

3-4 Goals40.1%

Under 2.5 Goals37.7%

1-2 Goals33.7%

Over 4.5 Goals22.2%

Exactly 3 Goals22.2%

Exactly 2 Goals20.8%

Under 1.5 Goals16.9%

Over 5.5 Goals10.7%

Under 0.5 Goals4.0%

Exactly 0 Goals4.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score80.0%

Away Team to Score79.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)63.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)36.1%

Home Clean Sheet20.1%

Away Clean Sheet20.0%

Home Win to Nil16.1%

Away Win to Nil16.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.580.0%

Away Over 0.579.9%

Home Over 1.547.8%

Away Over 1.547.6%

Away Exactly 132.3%

Home Exactly 132.2%

Home Exactly 225.9%

Away Exactly 225.9%

Home Over 2.521.9%

Home 3+ Goals21.9%

Away Over 2.521.8%

Away 3+ Goals21.8%

Away Exactly 020.1%

Home Exactly 020.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)92.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home92.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)92.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away92.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)81.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home81.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)80.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away80.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)61.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home61.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)61.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away61.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)38.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)38.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.3%

Home to win by 119.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw19.2%

Away to win by 119.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)19.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home19.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)18.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away18.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw11.4%

Home to win by 211.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw11.3%

Away to win by 211.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)7.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home7.7%

Home to win by 3+7.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)7.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away7.6%

Away to win by 3+7.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw5.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.553.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.527.3%

Home & Over 2.526.8%

Away & Over 2.526.6%

Home & BTTS22.4%

Away & BTTS22.2%

Draw & BTTS19.3%

Home & No BTTS16.1%

Away & No BTTS16.0%

Draw & Under 2.514.4%

Home & Under 2.511.7%

Away & Under 2.511.6%

BTTS & Under 2.510.4%

Draw & Over 2.59.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.576.5%

HT Under 1.557.6%

2nd Half More Goals45.3%

HT Over 1.542.4%

HT Draw37.6%

1st Half More Goals31.6%

HT Home Win31.3%

HT Away Win31.1%

HT Both Teams Score26.5%

HT Under 0.523.5%

Equal Goals Each Half23.1%

HT/FT Home/Home23.1%

HT/FT Away/Away22.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw12.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away12.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Away/Home2.8%

HT/FT Home/Away2.8%

Corners (12)

Home Most Corners76.2%

Under 11.5 Corners74.1%

Home Over 4.5 Corners73.5%

Under 10.5 Corners63.3%

Over 8.5 Corners62.0%

Under 9.5 Corners50.9%

Over 9.5 Corners49.1%

Under 8.5 Corners38.0%

Over 10.5 Corners36.7%

Away Over 4.5 Corners26.5%

Over 11.5 Corners25.9%

Away Most Corners14.7%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards82.3%

Over 2.5 Cards72.3%

Under 4.5 Cards67.8%

Over 3.5 Cards51.6%

Under 3.5 Cards48.4%

Over 4.5 Cards32.2%

Under 2.5 Cards27.7%

Over 5.5 Cards17.7%

Over 0.5 Red Cards15.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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