Brazil · Serie A

Cruzeiro vs Bahia

● LIVE 71' · 2:1

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

71% confidence

Cruzeiro 70.7% Draw 16.1% Bahia 13.2%

Over 2.5 - 81% BTTS - 70%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

87%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

71%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 7.9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Cruzeiro: 12 points versus 5 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.9%

Exact-score model probability

Cruzeiro

W W L W W L

Form 4-0-2 Goals 13:9 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1.5

Bahia

D D L W L L

Form 1-2-3 Goals 5:9 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 1

Cruzeiro 1wins ·0 draws ·Bahia 0wins

Cruzeiro 2-1 BahiaMay 10, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Cruzeiro win70.7%

Draw16.1%

Bahia win13.2%

Over 1.5 goals93.6%

Over 2.5 goals80.5%

Over 3.5 goals62.6%

Both teams to score70.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

91.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

91.1%

Home or Draw (1X)

85.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)85.8%

Home or Away (12)84.9%

Draw No Bet - Home83.8%

Both Halves Over 0.577.8%

Goal in Both Halves77.8%

Home Win71.1%

Draw or Away (X2)28.5%

Draw No Bet - Away16.2%

Draw14.7%

Away Win13.8%

Exactly 1 Goal5.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.3%

Over 1.5 Goals92.6%

Over 2.5 Goals80.2%

Under 5.5 Goals73.6%

Over 3.5 Goals62.4%

4+ Goals62.4%

Under 4.5 Goals56.9%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Total Goals Even49.8%

2-4 Goals49.5%

Over 4.5 Goals43.1%

Under 3.5 Goals37.6%

3-4 Goals37.1%

1-3 Goals35.9%

2-3 Goals30.2%

Over 5.5 Goals26.4%

Under 2.5 Goals19.8%

1-2 Goals18.1%

Exactly 3 Goals17.8%

Exactly 2 Goals12.4%

Under 1.5 Goals7.4%

Under 0.5 Goals1.7%

Exactly 0 Goals1.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.7%

Away Team to Score73.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)69.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)30.6%

Home Clean Sheet26.6%

Home Win to Nil25.3%

Away Clean Sheet4.9%

Away Win to Nil3.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.7%

Home Over 1.579.8%

Away Over 0.573.0%

Home Over 2.557.5%

Home 3+ Goals57.5%

Away Over 1.537.9%

Away Exactly 135.1%

Away Exactly 026.6%

Away Exactly 223.2%

Home Exactly 222.3%

Home Exactly 114.9%

Away Over 2.514.7%

Away 3+ Goals14.7%

Home Exactly 04.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)94.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home94.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)91.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away91.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)85.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home85.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)81.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away81.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)71.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)66.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away66.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)51.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home51.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)47.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away47.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)32.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home32.9%

Home to win by 3+32.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)28.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away28.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.2%

Home to win by 119.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.0%

Home to win by 219.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)18.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home18.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw14.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)13.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw9.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)8.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home8.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw8.4%

Away to win by 18.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)5.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away5.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw5.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.7%

Away to win by 23.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)3.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home3.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.7%

Away to win by 3+1.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.564.1%

Home & Over 2.561.2%

Home & BTTS45.8%

Home & No BTTS25.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.516.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.514.1%

Draw & BTTS13.4%

Away & Over 2.510.9%

Away & BTTS10.2%

Home & Under 2.59.9%

Draw & Over 2.58.2%

Draw & Under 2.56.6%

BTTS & Under 2.55.2%

Away & No BTTS3.6%

Away & Under 2.52.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.585.7%

HT Over 1.558.0%

HT Home Win55.4%

HT/FT Home/Home50.0%

2nd Half More Goals48.3%

HT Under 1.542.0%

HT Both Teams Score33.2%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw28.3%

Equal Goals Each Half19.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.9%

HT Away Win16.3%

HT Under 0.514.3%

HT/FT Away/Away7.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.6%

HT/FT Away/Home4.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.9%

HT/FT Home/Away1.4%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners77.6%

Under 10.5 Corners67.4%

Over 8.5 Corners57.9%

Home Over 4.5 Corners57.1%

Under 9.5 Corners55.2%

Home Most Corners54.7%

Over 9.5 Corners44.8%

Under 8.5 Corners42.1%

Away Over 4.5 Corners41.0%

Over 10.5 Corners32.6%

Away Most Corners32.5%

Over 11.5 Corners22.4%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards82.6%

Under 5.5 Cards70.3%

Over 3.5 Cards65.8%

Under 4.5 Cards53.2%

Over 4.5 Cards46.8%

Under 3.5 Cards34.2%

Over 5.5 Cards29.7%

Over 0.5 Red Cards18.0%

Under 2.5 Cards17.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions