UEFA Europa League

Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan

Kick-off 20:00 · Thu, Sep 17

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

80% confidence

Crystal Palace 10.0% Draw 10.3% Lech Poznan 79.7%

Over 2.5 - 95% BTTS - 83%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

90%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

83%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-4 at 5.5%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Lech Poznan: 9 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.84 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-4

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.5%

Exact-score model probability

Crystal Palace

L W W L L W

Form 3-0-3 Goals 10:11 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.83

Lech Poznan

D W W W L W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 19:6 Scored/game 3.17 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

Crystal Palace win10.0%

Draw10.3%

Lech Poznan win79.7%

Over 1.5 goals98.8%

Over 2.5 goals95.0%

Over 3.5 goals87.1%

Both teams to score83.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

91.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

91.7%

Both Halves Over 0.5

91.4%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.591.4%

Goal in Both Halves91.4%

Draw No Bet - Away88.7%

Home or Away (12)86.5%

Draw or Away (X2)86.2%

Away Win76.7%

Home or Draw (1X)19.2%

Draw No Bet - Home11.3%

Home Win9.7%

Draw9.5%

Exactly 1 Goal1.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.8%

Over 1.5 Goals94.7%

Over 2.5 Goals91.1%

Over 3.5 Goals83.6%

4+ Goals83.6%

Over 4.5 Goals71.8%

Over 5.5 Goals56.7%

Total Goals Odd48.0%

Total Goals Even48.0%

Under 5.5 Goals43.3%

Under 4.5 Goals28.2%

2-4 Goals22.9%

3-4 Goals19.4%

Under 3.5 Goals16.4%

1-3 Goals12.2%

2-3 Goals11.0%

Under 2.5 Goals8.9%

Exactly 3 Goals7.5%

Under 1.5 Goals5.3%

1-2 Goals4.7%

Under 0.5 Goals4.2%

Exactly 2 Goals3.5%

Exactly 0 Goals0.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score94.9%

Home Team to Score80.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)79.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)20.2%

Away Clean Sheet15.2%

Away Win to Nil15.1%

Home Clean Sheet1.1%

Home Win to Nil0.9%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.594.9%

Away Over 1.589.9%

Home Over 0.580.7%

Away Over 2.578.6%

Away 3+ Goals78.6%

Home Over 1.552.7%

Home Exactly 128.0%

Home Over 2.526.9%

Home 3+ Goals26.9%

Home Exactly 225.8%

Home Exactly 015.2%

Away Exactly 211.2%

Away Exactly 15.0%

Away Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)95.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)95.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away95.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)94.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away94.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)91.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away91.7%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)86.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)86.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away86.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)77.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home77.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)76.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)64.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home64.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)63.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away63.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)48.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home48.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)47.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away47.4%

Away to win by 3+47.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)32.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home32.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)31.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away31.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)19.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home19.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)18.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away18.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw15.9%

Away to win by 215.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw15.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw13.5%

Away to win by 113.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw13.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)9.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw9.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)9.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away9.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw5.5%

Home to win by 15.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)4.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home4.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw2.7%

Home to win by 22.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home1.6%

Home to win by 3+1.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.578.3%

Away & Over 2.574.1%

Away & BTTS61.7%

Away & No BTTS15.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.8%

Draw & BTTS9.3%

Home & Over 2.59.1%

Home & BTTS8.8%

Draw & Over 2.57.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.53.4%

Away & Under 2.52.6%

Draw & Under 2.51.6%

BTTS & Under 2.51.5%

Home & No BTTS0.9%

Home & Under 2.50.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.594.2%

HT Over 1.577.8%

HT Away Win65.2%

HT/FT Away/Away60.8%

2nd Half More Goals51.8%

HT Both Teams Score48.9%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.522.2%

HT Draw20.3%

Equal Goals Each Half15.7%

HT Home Win14.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.1%

HT Under 0.55.8%

HT/FT Home/Away5.8%

HT/FT Home/Home5.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home2.8%

HT/FT Away/Home1.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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