England · Premier League

Crystal Palace vs Manchester City

Kick-off 20:00 · Fri, Aug 28

📊 Our Prediction

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

56% confidence

Crystal Palace 18.6% Draw 25.9% Manchester City 55.5%

Over 2.5 - 78% BTTS - 68%

🎯 Best Pick

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

81%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

78%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

68%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 8.1%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Manchester City: 5 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.1%

Exact-score model probability

Crystal Palace

L W L D L D

Form 1-2-3 Goals 6:11 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.83

Manchester City

W L D W W W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 11:4 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 0.67

Head to head · last 5

Crystal Palace 0wins ·1 draws ·Manchester City 4wins

Crystal Palace 0-3 Manchester CityMay 13, 2026

Crystal Palace 0-3 Manchester CityDec 14, 2025

Crystal Palace 2-5 Manchester CityApr 12, 2025

Crystal Palace 2-2 Manchester CityDec 7, 2024

Crystal Palace 2-4 Manchester CityApr 6, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Crystal Palace win18.6%

Draw25.9%

Manchester City win55.5%

Over 1.5 goals74.4%

Over 2.5 goals77.6%

Over 3.5 goals26.5%

Both teams to score67.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

91.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home

91.2%

Draw or Away (X2)

86.3%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)86.3%

Home or Away (12)84.9%

Draw No Bet - Away84.3%

Both Halves Over 0.576.9%

Goal in Both Halves76.9%

Away Win71.6%

Home or Draw (1X)28.0%

Draw No Bet - Home15.7%

Draw14.7%

Home Win13.3%

Exactly 1 Goal6.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.2%

Over 1.5 Goals92.1%

Over 2.5 Goals79.2%

Under 5.5 Goals75.0%

Over 3.5 Goals60.9%

4+ Goals60.9%

Under 4.5 Goals58.5%

2-4 Goals50.6%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Over 4.5 Goals41.5%

Under 3.5 Goals39.1%

3-4 Goals37.7%

1-3 Goals37.3%

2-3 Goals31.2%

Over 5.5 Goals25.0%

Under 2.5 Goals20.8%

1-2 Goals19.0%

Exactly 3 Goals18.3%

Exactly 2 Goals12.9%

Under 1.5 Goals7.9%

Under 0.5 Goals1.8%

Exactly 0 Goals1.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score94.5%

Home Team to Score71.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)67.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)32.1%

Away Clean Sheet28.0%

Away Win to Nil26.6%

Home Clean Sheet5.1%

Home Win to Nil3.7%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.594.5%

Away Over 1.579.3%

Home Over 0.571.6%

Away Over 2.556.7%

Away 3+ Goals56.7%

Home Over 1.536.0%

Home Exactly 135.6%

Home Exactly 028.0%

Away Exactly 222.6%

Home Exactly 222.5%

Away Exactly 115.2%

Home Over 2.513.5%

Home 3+ Goals13.5%

Away Exactly 05.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away98.1%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)94.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away94.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)91.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home91.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)86.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away86.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)81.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home81.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)71.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)66.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home66.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)52.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away52.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)47.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home47.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)33.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away33.1%

Away to win by 3+33.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)28.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home28.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw19.3%

Away to win by 119.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw19.2%

Away to win by 219.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)18.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away18.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw15.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)13.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw9.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)8.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away8.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw8.2%

Home to win by 18.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)5.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home5.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw5.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw3.5%

Home to win by 23.5%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)3.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away3.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home1.6%

Home to win by 3+1.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.562.5%

Away & Over 2.561.0%

Away & BTTS45.0%

Away & No BTTS26.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.516.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.515.1%

Draw & BTTS13.3%

Away & Under 2.510.6%

Home & Over 2.510.3%

Home & BTTS9.6%

Draw & Over 2.57.8%

Draw & Under 2.56.9%

BTTS & Under 2.55.4%

Home & No BTTS3.7%

Home & Under 2.53.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.585.2%

HT Over 1.556.9%

HT Away Win55.6%

HT/FT Away/Away50.4%

2nd Half More Goals48.1%

HT Under 1.543.1%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Both Teams Score32.1%

HT Draw28.5%

Equal Goals Each Half19.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away17.1%

HT Home Win15.9%

HT Under 0.514.8%

HT/FT Home/Home7.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home4.5%

HT/FT Home/Away4.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.9%

HT/FT Away/Home1.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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