England · League Cup

Crystal Palace vs Middlesbrough

Kick-off 19:45 · Tue, Sep 8

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

53% confidence

Crystal Palace 25.4% Draw 21.5% Middlesbrough 53.1%

Over 2.5 - 76% BTTS - 74%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

79%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 8.4%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Middlesbrough: 7 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.16 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.4%

Exact-score model probability

Crystal Palace

W L L W L D

Form 2-1-3 Goals 8:12 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 2

Middlesbrough

W D W W L W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 11:6 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

Crystal Palace win25.4%

Draw21.5%

Middlesbrough win53.1%

Over 1.5 goals91.6%

Over 2.5 goals75.8%

Over 3.5 goals56.1%

Both teams to score73.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

91.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home

91.9%

Over 1.5 Goals

90.6%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)80.3%

Both Halves Over 0.573.9%

Goal in Both Halves73.9%

Draw or Away (X2)73.6%

Draw No Bet - Away67.2%

Away Win54.0%

Home or Draw (1X)46.0%

Draw No Bet - Home32.8%

Home Win26.4%

Draw19.6%

Exactly 1 Goal7.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.0%

Over 1.5 Goals90.6%

Under 5.5 Goals79.0%

Over 2.5 Goals75.8%

Under 4.5 Goals63.4%

Over 3.5 Goals56.1%

4+ Goals56.1%

2-4 Goals54.0%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals43.9%

1-3 Goals41.9%

3-4 Goals39.2%

Over 4.5 Goals36.6%

2-3 Goals34.5%

Under 2.5 Goals24.2%

1-2 Goals22.3%

Over 5.5 Goals21.0%

Exactly 3 Goals19.7%

Exactly 2 Goals14.8%

Under 1.5 Goals9.4%

Under 0.5 Goals2.0%

Exactly 0 Goals1.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score90.4%

Home Team to Score80.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)72.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)27.4%

Away Clean Sheet19.7%

Away Win to Nil17.8%

Home Clean Sheet9.5%

Home Win to Nil7.6%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.590.4%

Home Over 0.580.2%

Away Over 1.568.0%

Home Over 1.548.2%

Away Over 2.541.7%

Away 3+ Goals41.7%

Home Exactly 132.0%

Away Exactly 226.3%

Home Exactly 226.0%

Away Exactly 122.4%

Home Over 2.522.3%

Home 3+ Goals22.3%

Home Exactly 019.7%

Away Exactly 09.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.5%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)95.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away95.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)91.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home91.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)87.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away87.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)82.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home82.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)73.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away73.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)66.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home66.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)54.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)46.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home46.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)33.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away33.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)26.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw20.3%

Away to win by 120.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)17.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away17.8%

Away to win by 3+17.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw15.9%

Away to win by 215.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.0%

Home to win by 114.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)12.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home12.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw9.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)8.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away8.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw7.6%

Home to win by 27.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw4.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)4.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home4.8%

Home to win by 3+4.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away3.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw2.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.565.4%

Away & Over 2.544.4%

Away & BTTS36.1%

Home & Over 2.520.8%

Home & BTTS18.7%

Away & No BTTS17.8%

Draw & BTTS17.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.517.0%

Draw & Over 2.510.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.3%

Away & Under 2.59.6%

Draw & Under 2.59.0%

Home & No BTTS7.6%

BTTS & Under 2.57.2%

Home & Under 2.55.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.583.3%

HT Over 1.553.4%

2nd Half More Goals47.4%

HT Under 1.546.6%

HT Away Win42.7%

HT/FT Away/Away35.1%

HT Both Teams Score33.9%

HT Draw32.4%

1st Half More Goals32.1%

HT Home Win24.9%

Equal Goals Each Half20.4%

HT Under 0.516.7%

HT/FT Home/Home15.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home8.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Away4.2%

HT/FT Away/Home2.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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